Group D is finely poised heading into the final round of fixtures and the Euro 2024 favourite France face pointless Poland on Tuesday evening.
The French played without Kylian Mbappe against the Netherlands and the star's absence was clear to see as the game ended goalless, while Poland lost 3-1 against Austria and can't now finish higher than third.
We're expecting Mbappe to return to the starting lineup against Poland as Didier Dechamps' side bid to win their final match and finish top of the group.
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France vs Poland prediction: Les Bleus to win and keep a clean sheet
Key Stats
- France have kept clean sheets in each of their last four matches across all competitions.
- Poland have lost their opening two group games at Euro 2024.
- France have scored exactly three goals in two of their last three victories.
- Kylian Mbappé should return to the starting lineup against Poland where he will be looking to add to his 47 international goals.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds stacked against Poland
- HOME: 4/11 (1.36) – 73.3%
- DRAW: 23/5 (5.60) – 17.9%
- AWAY: 10/1 (11.00) – 9.1%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
France are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 73.3%, and we agree with the bookmakers on this one.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Last five H2Hs: France in front
Of their last five head-to-heads, France have claimed three wins and two draws against Poland, running out 3-1 winners when the pair last met in 2022.
World Cup 2022 04/12/22
France
Poland
France preview: Really missed Mbappe against the Netherlands
France will have been happy to take a point from their game against the Netherlands, despite enjoying the better of the chances.
The Netherlands took the lead in the second half only for the goal to be dubiously ruled out for offside when the player in question wasn't obstructing the goalkeeper and didn't touch the ball.
Kylian Mbappe didn't play any part in the game despite being on the bench and it showed as his team missed a host of chances that you feel he would have scored.
Predicted lineup: Maignan (GK), Hernández, Upamecano, Koundé, Saliba, Kanté, Rabiot, Tchouaméni, Griezmann, Dembélé & Mbappe
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Croatia
0
France
2
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Croatia
2
France
0
UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
W
Italy
1
France
3
UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
D
Israel
0
France
0
UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W
Belgium
1
France
2
Poland preview: Have looked toothless without Lewandowski
Poland gave a good account of themselves in the first half against Austria with both teams scoring in the opening half-hour.
However, Austria made some changes at the break and turned the game in their favour, dominating the second 45 and scoring twice to deservedly win the game 3-1 making Poland the first team to be eliminated from Euro 2024.
Robert Lewandowski came off the bench with no effect but we do expect the Barcelona man to start against France.
Predicted lineup: Szczęsny (GK), Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior, Zieliński, Frankowski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski, Buksa & Lewandowski
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 24/03/25
W
Malta
0
Poland
2
Europe - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
W
Lithuania
0
Poland
1
UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24
L
Scotland
2
Poland
1
UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24
L
Portugal
5
Poland
1
UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24
D
Croatia
3
Poland
3
Player to watch – Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe picked up what looked like a broken nose in France's opening group game against Austria and didn't play any part against the Netherlands but was named on the substitutes bench.
France's captain and talisman was missed on matchday two and had to watch his teammates play out the first goalless draw of the tournament.
France's captain to return against Poland
We're expecting Mbappe to be thrown back into the starting lineup against Poland as France will be looking to win their final group game in a bid to finish above the Netherlands at the top of Group D.
The latest Tweets from each camp
France
???? ?? ??? ????? ?
? 3rd group stage match at #EURO2024
? Poland ??
?️ Signal Iduna Park – Dortmund
⏰ 18h00#FRAPOL | #FiersdetreBleus pic.twitter.com/4k2YKD0STI— French Team ⭐⭐ (@FrenchTeam) June 25, 2024
Poland
On Tuesday morning, PZPN President Cezary Kulesza gave his full support for Michał Probierz, confirming that he will continue as Polish national team selekcjoner after UEFA EURO 2024❗️
Polish Guardiola is set to begin his revolution on the Biało-czerwoni this fall. ✅??#PZPN pic.twitter.com/IUqmhHdp61
— PSN Futbol (@PSN_Futbol) June 25, 2024