FK Qarabag snuck through the Champions League playoffs by finishing 22nd in the league phase, only just booking their spot in the knockouts for the first time in their history.
Newcastle United have achieved the same feat, finishing the league phase in 12th, four points ahead of Wednesday night’s hosts.
Both sides are looking to make history, and by the end of the tie, one of them will, when they compete in the last 16 of the UCL for the first time.
It is crucial to set the tone for the tie in the first leg, where both teams will search for an advantage to take to the reverse leg in under a week.
Explore our FK Qarabag vs Newcastle betting tips below.
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FK Qarabag vs Newcastle prediction: A tight fixture to separate
Key stats
- Qarabag’s most recent encounter with an English opponent ended in a 6-0 loss to Liverpool, but they also held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw earlier this season.
- The hosts have scored a minimum of two goals in six European home games on the bounce.
- Newcastle have kept just two clean sheets across 16 UCL proper away matches.
- Camilo Duran scored the opening goal in each of Qarabag’s last two UCL home games.
Correct score prediction: FK Qarabag 2-2 Newcastle
While the hosts have enjoyed scoring 13 goals in their eight league phase fixtures – nine of which arrived at home – their defence has been shaky, shipping 21 goals in that run of games. That will be music to the ears of Newcastle’s front line, who have yet to register a blank in this competition this term. It is worth noting that five of the Horsemen’s eight league phase matches saw both teams score, while the same occurred in three of the visitors’ last four UCL outings.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies favour the English
- HOME:11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
- DRAW: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
- AWAY: 4/9 (1.44) – 69.2%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Oddly, the bookies have given Newcastle a massive chance of winning this game, coming in at 69.2%, despite their general away form not being inspirational. According to Ladbrokes, there is a higher chance of this game ending in a draw at 20.8% than a home victory at 15.4%.
We have more free betting tips for today to help you out with the best possible selections.
Most recent H2Hs: A night of firsts
Both teams will be competing in the knockout phase of the Champions League for the first time, but it is also their first-ever meeting. The Azerbaijan outfit have clashed with English opposition before without much luck. Their most recent battle against Chelsea ended in a 2-2 draw, while they lost their previous eight fixtures against English opposition.
FK Qarabag preview: Full-strength squad for Gurbanov
Head coach Gurban Gurbanov enjoys a near full-strength squad for the first leg. Azerbaijan's number one, Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev, is injured and will not be available on the bench for this one. Meanwhile, Matheus Silva, Kevin Medina and Marko Jankovic are all a booking away from missing the reverse fixture at St James’ Park.
Predicted lineup: Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran
Last five matches
- 14/02/26: Imisli FK 0-1 FK Qarabag (Azerbaijan Premier League)
- 10/02/26: Shamakhi 1-2 FK Qarabag (Azerbaijan Premier League)
- 05/02/26: Shamakhi 2-1 FK Qarabag (Azerbaijan Cup)
- 01/02/26: FK Qarabag 1-0 Turan Tovuz (Azerbaijan Premier League)
- 28/01/26: Liverpool 6-0 FK Qarabag (Champions League)
Newcastle preview: Guimaraes out long-term
Influential midfielder and club captain Bruno Guimaraes missed last weekend’s trip to Aston Villa due to an injury and will be out for at least two months. Head coach Eddie Howe already has a packed treatment room with Valentino Livramento and Fabian Schar sitting out due to injuries. Additionally, the Magpies are sweating on the fitness of Joelinton and Lewis Miley, who are facing a race to be fit for Baku. Yoane Wissa picked up a knock and did not feature in the matchday squad over the weekend, but could turn out from the bench.
Predicted lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Willock, Tonali, Ramsey; Barnes, Woltemade, Gordon
Last five matches
- 14/02/26: Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (FA Cup)
- 10/02/26: Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 07/02/26: Newcastle 2-3 Brentford (Premier League)
- 04/02/26: Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle (League Cup)
- 31/01/26: Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
Player to watch: Camilo Duran
Camilo Duran is the man in form for the hosts, particularly in the Champions League, as he scored the opening goal in each of Qarabag’s last two home matches. The Colombian has already scored four goals in his eight UCL matches this season and is entering this game in great form.
It is worth noting that Duran scored three goals in his last five starts across all competitions for Qarabag.