England vs Slovakia prediction, odds & betting tips – 30/06/2024

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Under 2.5 total goals

Five of England and Slovakia’s combined six group fixtures featured under 2.5 goals

England head to Gelsenkirchen to take on Slovakia at the Arena AufSchalke in the Last 16 of Euro 2024 on Sunday, 30 June. The Three Lions will need to rouse themselves to avoid a giant-killing at the hands of the Slovakians. Check out our free Euro 2024 betting tips for the fixture below.

England vs Slovakia prediction: Goals could be at a premium

Key Stats

  • England managed to score just two goals in their three Group C fixtures.
  • Slovakia scored exactly one goal in each of their three group stage assignments.
  • Five of England and Slovakia’s combined six group matches produced under 2.5 goals.
  • Misfiring England scored one or fewer goals in six of their last eight games in all competitions.

Correct score prediction: England 1-0 Slovakia

England registered just a single goal in two of their three group matches, though they were able to secure two clean sheets at the other end in three outings in Group C, and with their defence looking solid, a solitary goal could be enough to see off a Slovakian outfit that lacks firepower.

Pre-game odds and win probability: England odds-on favourites

  • HOME: 21/50 (1.42) – 70.4%
  • DRAW: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%
  • AWAY: 15/2 (8.50) – 11.8%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

England’s performances have been limp enough at Euro 2024 to earn scathing criticism, however, while Gareth Southgate has struggled to spark life into his star-studded attack, the Three Lions remain defensively sound and they conceded just 1.20 in xG combined across their three group matches.

With their water-tight defence likely a major factor, England are 21/50 favourites to win against Slovakia on Sunday, with the underdogs – who’ve won only once in three attempts in Germany – equipped with just an 11.8% chance of causing an upset. Visit our football tips page for more free Euro 2024 predictions and expert analysis.

Last five H2Hs: First meeting since 2017

England and Slovakia were drawn together in the same World Cup 2018 qualification group and the Three Lions came out on top in both encounters with their less-illustrious opponents. England are unbeaten in six previous tussles with Slovakia overall, winning on five occasions.

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 04/09/17

England

England

2
Slovakia

Slovakia

1

Europe - World Cup Qualifying 04/09/16

Slovakia

Slovakia

0
England

England

1

Euro 2016 20/06/16

Slovakia

Slovakia

0
England

England

0

England preview: Mainoo to finally feature?

Gareth Southgate is under pressure to shuffle his XI against Slovakia, though England's Head Coach might resist the urge to make many changes. Phil Foden should be back in time to feature having flown home for family reasons. Kobbie Mainoo is pushing to start in midfield.

Predicted lineup: Pickford (GK), Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier, Mainoo, Rice, Bellingham, Saka, Foden, Kane

Euro 2024 14/07/24

L

Spain

Spain

2

England

England

1

Euro 2024 10/07/24

W

Netherlands

Netherlands

1

England

England

2

Euro 2024 06/07/24

W

Switzerland

Switzerland

1 (3)

England

England

1 (5)

Euro 2024 30/06/24

W

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

England

England

2

Euro 2024 25/06/24

D

Slovenia

Slovenia

0

England

England

0

Slovakia preview: Falcons could name the same XI

Slovakia Head Coach Francesco Calzona has used a 4-3-3 formation in every fixture at Euro 2024, so expect to see a similar set up in Gelsenkirchen. Newcastle keeper Martin Dubravka will expect to keep his place between the sticks.

Predicted lineup: Dubravka (GK), Pekarik, Vavro, Skriniar, Hancko, Kucka, Lobotka, Duda, Schranz, Haraslin, Strelec

Euro 2024 30/06/24

L

England

England

2

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

Euro 2024 26/06/24

D

Romania

Romania

1

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

Euro 2024 21/06/24

L

Ukraine

Ukraine

2

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

Euro 2024 17/06/24

W

Belgium

Belgium

0

Slovakia

Slovakia

1

International Match 09/06/24

W

Wales

Wales

0

Slovakia

Slovakia

4

Key duels

Kieran Trippier vs Ivan Schranz

Kieran Tripper will likely keep his place at left-back on Sunday, though the right-footer hasn’t looked comfortable in that position and the clever running of two-goal Ivan Schranz could trouble the veteran.

Jude Bellingham vs Ondrej Duda

Marauding midfielder Jude Bellingham has been fouled 2.00 times per game at Euro 2024 and his ankles could be clipped again on Sunday by Slovakia’s Ondrej Duda. The 29-year-old has been averaging 2.3 fouls per game at the tournament.

Harry Kane vs Milan Skriniar

Harry Kane has just one goal to show for his eight shots at Euro 2024, and the Bayern Munich star will need to come through a physical battle with 6’2” Milan Skriniar to get more sight at the goal on Sunday.

Player to watch – Bukayo Saka

Arsenal starlet Bukayo Saka has yet to really catch fire at Euro 2024, though the 22-year-old has buckets of match-winning ability and he could yet have a major say at the tournament.

England vs Slovakia prediction
Bukayo Saka needs to raise his performance levels against Slovakia – Photo by Icon Sport

Saka needs to play with more belief

Right winger Bukayo Saka has been averaging 1.0 shots for England at Euro 2024, though he averaged 3.10 attempts per game for Arsenal in the Premier League last term and the attacker needs to play with more authority on the international stage, starting with Sunday’s Round of 16 clash with Slovakia.

Winner’s next potential opponents

England enter the duel with Slovakia as the clear favourites to get to the next stage, but whoever wins this match already knows the next opponent, which is Switzerland. The Swiss have eliminated the defending champions Italy and await England or Slovakia in the quarter-finals.

England have a great record against Switzerland, with 18 wins, along with six draws and three losses. Meanwhile, Slovakia have only met with Switzerland three times since their independence and they've won two of those matches and lost once.

If England or Slovakia can get through Switzerland, in the semi-finals they will meet either Netherlands or Austria as the two main favourites from that side, while in the final they can meet with France, Portugal, Germany, or Spain, among others.

The latest Tweets from each camp

England

Slovakia


Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.