Carlo Ancelotti will take charge of his first Brazil game when the Selecao travel to Ecuador in World Cup qualifying on Thursday. The Italian replaced Dorival Junior at the helm last week following the chastening 4-1 defeat to Argentina that saw the former manager sacked back in March.
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Ecuador vs Brazil prediction: A tricky opener for Ancelotti
Key Stats
- Ecuador have conceded just two goals in their seven home qualifiers, taking an impressive 17 points.
- Brazil have taken 11 points from their previous six qualifiers, but they did lose to Argentina last time out.
- Ecuador have not beaten Brazil in any of their previous 13 meetings.
- Brazil are averaging exactly one point-per-game on the road in World Cup qualifying.
Correct score prediction: Ecuador 1-1 Brazil
Two of the last three meetings between these two nations have ended 1-1, and Ecuador are in much better shape than Brazil at the moment, but the visitors now have Ancelotti at the helm, which could give them a lift ahead of this tricky away trip.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Brazil the surprising clear favourites
- HOME: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
- DRAW: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
- AWAY: 8/7 (2.14) – 46.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Despite Ecuador's phenomenal home form in qualifying, the bookmakers have Brazil down as the favourites to win this one, potentially due to the Ancelotti factor.
However, with five wins and two draws from their seven home qualifiers, and five clean sheets to go with it, Ecuador will be very tough to break down, so the hosts to keep another clean sheet being priced at 12/5 looks like excellent value.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Brazil dominant in this fixture
Even though Ecuador are in a healthy place at present, they have struggled greatly in this fixture across their history, winning none of the previous 13, and just two of their 36 all-time head-to-heads.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 07/09/24
Brazil
Ecuador
South America - World Cup Qualifying 27/01/22
Ecuador
Brazil
Copa America 27/06/21
Brazil
Ecuador
South America - World Cup Qualifying 05/06/21
Brazil
Ecuador
South America - World Cup Qualifying 01/09/17
Brazil
Ecuador
Ecuador preview: A tough nut to crack
Ecuador are set to be the story of qualifying, and could well be a dark horse at the finals next summer, when their spot is inevitably booked, sitting second in the section.
Manager Sebastian Beccacece has a largely settled XI, making one or two tweaks between each international window, but the spine of the team remains the same, including Willian Pacho, Moises Caicedo and Enner Valencia
Predicted lineup: Galindez (GK), Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Estupinan, Preciado, Vite, Caicedo, Franco, Plata & Valencia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
D
Chile
0
Ecuador
0
South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
W
Venezuela
1
Ecuador
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
W
Colombia
0
Ecuador
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/11/24
W
Bolivia
0
Ecuador
4
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
D
Uruguay
0
Ecuador
0
Brazil preview: Ancelotti seeking debut win
There is little doubt that Brazil will make the finals, thanks largely to the new expanded format that has granted CONMEBOL two additional spots at the World Cup, so Ancelotti can ease himself into the role, with qualification set to take care of itself.
Neymar and Rodrygo are the two most notable absentees from the squad this month, with Vinicius Junior being the only Real Madrid player in the squad, less than a month after Ancelotti left the club.
Predicted lineup: Alisson (GK), Vanderson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Carlos Augusto, Bruno Guimaraes, Gerson, Raphinha, Cunha, Vinicius Junior & Richarlison
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
L
Argentina
4
Brazil
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
W
Colombia
1
Brazil
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/11/24
D
Uruguay
1
Brazil
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 14/11/24
D
Venezuela
1
Brazil
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/10/24
W
Peru
0
Brazil
4
Player to watch: Willian Pacho
Fresh off the back of winning the Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain, Pacho will seamlessly slot back into the centre of this stingy Ecuador defence that give very few goals away.
If Pacho can lead his country to a sixth clean sheet in eight home games, then a very famous result could be on the cards for Ecuador.
