Dortmund vs Real Madrid prediction, odds & betting tips – 01/06/2024

Dortmund vs Real Madrid prediction
Will the Champions League trophy return to the Santiago Bernabéu? – Photo by Icon Sport

It's time for our Champions League predictions ahead of Saturday's final between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid.

The 32nd Champions League final will take place at Wembley Stadium and will feature the 1997 winners Borussia Dortmund and the 14-time champions Real Madrid. The Spaniards head into the final as the clear favourite with the bookmakers but Dortmund defied the odds to defeat PSG in the semi-finals and should not be underestimated.

Dortmund vs Real Madrid predictions: Entertaining 90 minutes expected in London

Key Stats

  • Over 2.5 goals have been scored in five of the last six encounters between Dortmund and Real, while four of the German side's and five of the Spaniard's last six outings have also witnessed at least three goals.
  • Two of the last four meetings between these two clubs have ended in 2-2 draws, while both teams head into the final in good goalscoring form which is why we're backing a final scoreline of 2-2 after 90 minutes.
  • Both teams have found the back of the net in each of the last four head-to-heads between Dortmund and Real, and we're expecting both teams to score in Saturday's final.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds stacked against Dortmund

  • HOME: 9/2 (5.50) – 18.2%
  • DRAW: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%
  • AWAY: 13/20 (1.65) – 60.6%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Real Madrid are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 60.6%, and we agree that the Spanish side deserves the ‘favourites' tag.

Dortmund claimed a 2-0 aggregate victory against PSG to become the first team to qualify for the 2013/24 Champions League final, closely followed by Real Madrid who defeated Bayern Munich 4-3 over two legs.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior is the favourite to score in the final at 6/4 (2.50) which has a probability of 40%, but if you want to back a Dortmund goalscorer then Niclas Fullkrug is priced at 15/4 (4.75) with a probability of 21.1%.

Last five H2Hs: Madrid edge it

UEFA Champions League 06/12/17

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

3
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2

UEFA Champions League 26/09/17

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

3

UEFA Champions League 07/12/16

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2

UEFA Champions League 27/09/16

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2

UEFA Champions League 08/04/14

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

Real Madrid have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five games against Dortmund, all of which were in the Champions League.

Team news and form guide

Dortmund: Upset the odds against PSG

Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund could be without the services of Mateu Morey, Sebastien Haller, Julien Duranville and Ramy Bensebaini for Saturday's final.

Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Hummels, Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Brandt, Füllkrug, Sancho & Adeyemi

UEFA Champions League 01/06/24

L

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

Germany Bundesliga I 18/05/24

W

Darmstadt

Darmstadt

0

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

4

Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/24

L

Mainz

Mainz

3

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

UEFA Champions League 07/05/24

W

PSG

PSG

0

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

1

Germany Bundesliga I 04/05/24

W

Augsburg

Augsburg

1

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

5

Real Madrid: Beat German opposition in the semi-final

Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin looks set to miss the Champions League final through illness, while midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and defender David Alaba will both miss out due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Nacho, Carvajal, Rüdiger, Mendy, Kroos, Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham, Júnior & Rodrygo 

UEFA Champions League 01/06/24

W

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

2

Spain Primera Liga 25/05/24

D

Real Betis

Real Betis

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

0

Spain Primera Liga 19/05/24

D

Villarreal

Villarreal

4

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

4

Spain Primera Liga 14/05/24

W

CD Alaves

CD Alaves

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

5

Spain Primera Liga 11/05/24

W

Granada

Granada

0

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

4

Player to watch – Joselu

Real Madrid's on-loan striker Joselu has impressed this season despite the 34-year-old being considered a journey-man throughout his career.

Joselu player to watch
Joselu celebrates scoring for Real Madrid – Photo by Icon Sport

The former Newcastle striker has scored 18 goals in 48 games across all competitions, including five goals in the Champions League. The veteran striker came off the bench late on in the semi-final against Bayern Munich where the 14-time champions were 1-0 down and heading out of the competition. However, Joselu scored two goals in the space of four minutes to end any hopes of an all-German final.

Will the former Newcastle striker be an unlikely hero once again?

Joselu could well be the unlikely hero for Real Madrid in Saturday's final as we're expecting a closely fought 90 minutes that could well be settled in extra-time or via a penalty shootout and the Spanish striker is likely to start on the bench but will certainly come on should Real Madrid be in need of a goal.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Dortmund

Real Madrid


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things