Croatia and Italy meet in a crucial clash on the final matchday in Group B. Our Croatia vs Italy prediction and Euro 2024 betting tips consider which of these teams will progress into the knockout stage.
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Croatia vs Italy prediction: Dalic’s team to win crunch clash with Kramaric on target
Key stats
- Our Croatia vs Italy betting tips take into account a desperate Italian display last time out which saw them have just four attempts against Spain, their lowest ever shot tally at the Euros.
- Croatia have scored twice or more in four of their last five internationals.
- It’s just seven goals in seven matches for the Azzurri with their frontline struggling to deliver a consistent attacking threat.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy the slight favourites
- CROATIA: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- ITALY: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The Azzurri are the favourites according to the Croatia vs Italy odds with an implied probability of 43.5% that they win this game, although they only need a draw to secure qualification.
Italy were outclassed by Spain last time out, losing 1-0 to a Riccardo Calafiori own goal, although it could easily have been more.
Croatia meanwhile have had a frustrating tournament so far and were denied a victory against Albania in Stoppage Time last time out. The all-Balkans affair ended 2-2 with Andrej Kramaric on target for the Croats who also benefited from an own goal.
For more of the latest football picks, today’s betting tips feature some of the best bets from this week’s action.
Last five H2Hs: History favours Croatia
Our Croatia vs Italy prediction is largely backed up by recent history given Croatia haven’t lost to Italy since their formal re-admission into FIFA in 1992. Four of the six competitive meetings have ended in draws with Croatia winning the other two.
Euro 2024 24/06/24
Croatia
Italy
Euro 2015 Qualifying 12/06/15
Croatia
Italy
Euro 2014 Qualifying 16/11/14
Italy
Croatia
Croatia preview: Vlasic missing due to injury
Torino midfielder Nikola Vlasic is injured and is not expected to play any part in this game due to injury. There could be light changes after two disappointing results.
Predicted Lineup: Livakovic (GK), Perisic, Gvardiol, Sutalo, Juranovic, Kovacic, Modric, Kramaric, Brozovic, Majer & Petkovic
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25 L France 2 Croatia 0 UEFA Nations League 20/03/25 W France 0 Croatia 2 UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24 D Portugal 1 Croatia 1 UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24 L Scotland 1 Croatia 0 UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24 D Poland 3 Croatia 3
Italy preview: Spalletti looking for a response
Lucian Spalletti is hoping to have a full squad available and he’ll want a response after a poor display against Spain. Some changes are likely with Bryan Cristante and Mateo Retegui pushing for starts.
Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Dimarco, Mancini, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo, Cristante, Barella, Pellegrini, Cambiaso, Chiesa & Retegui
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25 D Germany 3 Italy 3 UEFA Nations League 20/03/25 L Germany 2 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24 L France 3 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24 W Belgium 0 Italy 1 UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24 W Israel 1 Italy 4
Player to watch – Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric is sure to be one of Croatia’s main threats in this game and he’s the only Croatian to find the net in this tournament so far. He’s also coming in after a great season with Hoffenheim which saw him score 15 and assist six in the Bundesliga.
The most influential Croat at Euro 2024
So far, Kramaric has been Croatia’s most dangerous attacking player. He averages 2.5 key passes per game at this tournament, more than any of his teammates whilst also averaging 2.5 dribbles per game from the left flank.
The latest Tweets from each camp
Croatia
Who's winning this one? ???? #CROITA #EURO2024 #Vatreni❤️?
— HNS (@HNS_CFF) June 24, 2024
Italy
It's a big one ⚽️
Let's get this done ??#CROITA #EURO2024 #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/7NHfJwDYfX— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 24, 2024