Colombia will look to take one step closer to reaching the World Cup finals when they host Peru in CONMEBOL qualifying on Friday. Peru are on the brink of elimination, while Los Cafeteros are in a comfortable position inside the top six.
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Colombia vs Peru prediction: Host to edge a low-scoring affair
Key stats
- Our Colombia vs Peru betting tips take into account that the visitors have won just one point in seven away games across qualifying so far.
- No nation has taken fewer points than Peru's tally of 10 so far in CONMEBOL after 14 matches.
- Colombia have only lost one of their seven home fixtures in qualifying so far, against second-placed Ecuador.
Correct score prediction: Colombia 1-0 Peru
Despite showing no form of their own, Colombia can bail themselves out here against opponents who are as poor as anyone in South America on the road, as Peru are winless and goalless away from home in this campaign.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Colombia the clear favourites
- HOME: 4/11 (1.36) – 73.3%
- DRAW: 18/5 (4.60) – 21.7%
- AWAY: 15/2 (8.50) – 11.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The bookmakers certainly agree when it comes to making Colombia favourites for this affair, as they have an implied probability of 73.3% to take all three points here, and moving to within touching distance of the finals.
Even at 15/2, there is no value in backing an away win in this encounter, given Peru's clear and well-documented struggles away from Lima, as a Colombia clean sheet is also priced very short at 4/7.
For more picks, today’s football tips take a look at some of the best bets from the international action.
Most recent H2Hs: A mixed picture
Past meetings suggest this could be a close encounter, given that Peru have only lost one of the last four, holding Colombia to a 1-1 draw back in September, as well as winning on their last visit here, but this current squad are not at the same level.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 07/09/24
Peru
Colombia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 28/01/22
Colombia
Peru
Copa America 10/07/21
Colombia
Peru
Copa America 21/06/21
Colombia
Peru
South America - World Cup Qualifying 04/06/21
Peru
Colombia
Colombia preview: Important attacker to miss out
Luis Diaz is suspended for the hosts, so Nestor Lorenzo will have to cope without their key attacking outlet, as well as numerous defenders, including Johan Mojica, Carlos Cuesta, Santiago Arias and Juan Cabal.
Predicted Lineup: Vargas (GK), Munoz, Mina, Lucumi, Machado, Rios, Lerma, Asprilla, J Arias, Duran & James
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
D Paraguay 2 Colombia 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
L Brazil 2 Colombia 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
L Ecuador 1 Colombia 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/11/24
L Uruguay 3 Colombia 2 South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
W Chile 0 Colombia 4
Peru preview: Ageing squad named once again
Despite their struggles in qualifying with an ageing squad, Oscar Ibanez has named most of the same players again here, including 41-year-old Paolo Guerrero, who is set to start.
Predicted Lineup: Gallese (GK), Advincula, Zambrano, Garces, Lopez, Aquino, Tapia, Carrillo, Polo, Guerrero & Reyna
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
L Venezuela 1 Peru 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
W Bolivia 1 Peru 3 South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/11/24
L Argentina 1 Peru 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/11/24
D Chile 0 Peru 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/10/24
L Brazil 4 Peru 0
Player to watch: Daniel Munoz
The Colombian right-back is coming off the back of a sensational season at Crystal Palace, where he gained plaudits for his work at both end of the pitch.
With Diaz unavailable, Colombia will be relying on players like Munoz to provide pace and directness against a stubborn Peru side that are set to sit deep and hope for a draw.