Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta return to action in the UEFA Champions League when they square off in the first leg of the knockout-stage playoffs on Tuesday. Both sides will be looking to place one foot in the round of 16 of Europe’s biggest club competition and we anticipate a thrilling contest at the Signal Iduna Park.
FootballWhispers’ Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta prediction takes a look at the chances of both sides coming away with the desired result in Germany.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta prediction: A clash of two in-form sides
Key stats
- Dortmund are on a run of three consecutive victories and are unbeaten in 11 of their last 13 games across all competitions, picking up eight wins and three draws since early December.
- Atalanta are unbeaten in five of their most recent six away games in all competitions, claiming three wins and two draws since December 21.
- Dortmund have lost just one of their last eight home games since December 7, while picking up six wins and one draw in that time.
- Atalanta have opened the scoring in eight of their last 10 games and have led at half time in five of their most recent seven matches since January 21.
Correct score prediction: Dortmund 2-1 Atalanta
Given the stakes of Tuesday’s tie, we expect Dortmund and Atalanta to leave everything on the line at the Signal Iduna Park as they look to keep their Champions League dreams alive.
Both sides are in fine form, winning each of their last three domestic outings, but we predict the German giants will make the most of their home advantage and come away with the result.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Dortmund fancied, but Atalanta have what it takes to get the job done
- HOME: 1/1 (2.00) – 50%
- DRAW: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
- AWAY: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Dortmund ensured they remained within touching distance of Bayern Munich at the top of the German Bundesliga standings last Friday when they secured an emphatic 4-0 victory over Mainz on home turf.
With that result, Niko Kovac’s men have won six games on the bounce in the league and are unbeaten in 15 straight matches since October’s 2-1 loss against Bayern, a run which has seen them surge into second place in the table, six points off top spot.
While Dortmund are currently firing on all cylinders back home, a run of just one point against Bodo/Glimt, Tottenham and Inter Milan from their final three Champions League group-stage games saw them finish 17th in the standings, five points off the coveted top-eight places.
The German giants will head into Tuesday’s crunch tie aiming to make it four consecutive victories for the first time since October, and the bookmakers have them down as firm favourites to come out on top, currently priced at 1/1.
This indicates a 50% win probability, significantly higher than Atalanta’s 29.4% chance of victory, while there is a 27.8% likelihood of both sides settling for a share of the spoils, leaving all to play for in the return leg.
However, Atalanta have shown they do not back down when against the odds, having picked up impressive victories against Marseille and Premier League side Chelsea in the group stages.
Raffaele Palladino’s men racked up 13 points from the first 15 available in the group-stage phase, but consecutive defeats against Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gilloise in their final two outings saw them miss out on the top eight by just three points.
Atalanta journey to the Signal Iduna Park on a run of three consecutive wins, thrashing Juventus 3-0 in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals on February 5, before claiming back-to-back victories over Cremonese and Lazio in the Serie A, where they sit sixth in the table.
While we take a deeper dive into both teams, you can take a look at some of FootballWhispers’ best picks and predictions for the European fixtures in today’s free football betting tips.
Most recent H2Hs: A third meeting in Europe
This will be the fourth meeting between Dortmund and Atalanta, with both sides picking up one win each from their previous three encounters.
Atalanta edged out Dortmund 1-0 in a friendly when they first met back in August 2017, before the Bundesliga side picked up one win and one draw over two legs to secure a 4-3 aggregate victory in their Europa League round-of-32 clash in February 2018.
Borussia Dortmund preview: Key trio set to miss out
Dortmund will have to cope without the services of veteran midfielder Emre Can, who has missed each of the last three matches since sustaining an adductor injury.
He is joined on the club’s injury table by Italian defender Filippo Mane, who is set to sit out his third straight game since suffering a muscle problem against Heidenheim on February 1.
Swedish international Daniel Svensson will also sit out Tuesday’s crunch tie due to suspension after picking up a straight red card against Tottenham back in January.
Predicted lineup: Kobel (GK), Suele, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Bensebaini, Brandt, Guirassy & Beier
Dortmund's last five matches:
- Dortmund 4-0 Mainz
- Wolfsburg 1-2 Dortmund
- Dortmund 3-2 Heidenheim
- Dortmund 0-2 Inter Milan
- Union Berlin 0-3 Dortmund
Atalanta preview: Charles De Ketelaere injury blow
Atalanta will take to the pitch without key attacker Charles De Ketelaere, who has missed each of the last two games since sustaining a knee injury in the cup win over Juventus a fortnight ago.
Predicted lineup: Carnesecchi (GK), Scalvini, Djimsiti, Ahanor, Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi, Raspadori, Scamacca & Krstovic
Auxerre's last five matches:
- Lazio 0-2 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese
- Atalanta 3-0 Juventus
- Como 0-0 Atalanta
- Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Atalanta
Player to watch — Serhou Guirassy
Guirassy was once again amongst the goals for Dortmund at the weekend, netting twice to fire Dortmund to an emphatic home victory over Mainz in the Bundesliga, and the 29-year-old striker will be one to look out for on Tuesday.
While the brace against Mainz has seen his league tally rise to 11 goals, the Guinean international has also been on song for Die Borussen in the Champions League, where he boasts three goals and two assists in seven starts.
Guirassy, who has racked up five goals in his last three matches, should spearhead Dortmund’s attack once again, forming the front three with the German duo of Julian Brandt and 23-year-old Maximilian Beier.