Real Madrid will make the trip to Estadio da Luz for their UEFA Champions League encounter with Benfica on Wednesday, 28 January 2026.
View our free Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions below.
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Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions: Visitors to claim all the spoils
Key stats
- Benfica have suffered five defeats in seven UEFA Champions League matches this season.
- In contrast, Real Madrid won five of their seven games in this competition.
- Five of Real Madrid's last seven matches produced goals at both ends.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 2-4 Real Madrid
In addition to losing five of seven UEFA Champions League games so far, Benfica have also suffered three defeats in their last five matches across all competitions. They are up against a Real Madrid side that won eight of their previous 10 games.
Despite Benfica's best efforts, we believe that Real Madrid will emerge victorious after 90 minutes.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica up against it
- HOME: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
- DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
- AWAY: 8/11 (1.73) – 57.9%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Benfica have earned only six points from a possible 21 and will need to win this match. Ahead of the last round of the league phase, anything other than a victory will eliminate the Portuguese Primeira Liga giants from the UEFA Champions League.
It is important to note that a win itself isn't enough, as Benfica would need other results to go their way before they can advance to the Playoff Round.
On the other hand, Real Madrid will guarantee a place in the Round of 16 with a win. Interestingly, Los Blancos might still stay in the top eight if they lose this match, depending on the outcome of other matches.
Given Benfica's struggles in the UEFA Champions League this season, it is unsurprising that Real Madrid are the expected winners at 8/11 (1.73). Teams with these odds usually have a 57.9% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions.
It is also worth mentioning that three of Real Madrid's last five matches went above the 4.5-goal mark. On that note, over 3.5 total goals has an appealing look at 6/5 (2.20). That one has a 45.5% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: First competitive clash since 1965
The most recent encounter between these outfits was a July 2012 friendly in which Benfica won 5-2.
Interestingly, Benfica and Real Madrid clashed three times in the UEFA Champions League between May 1962 and March 1965. Their May 1962 encounter was in the final, which turned out to be Benfica's last title to date.
UEFA Champions League 08/03/22
Real Madrid
Benfica
UEFA Champions League 15/02/22
Benfica
Real Madrid
Benfica preview: Few injury concerns
Benfica will have to do without Alexander Bah (knee), Samuel Soares (muscle), and Dodi Lukebakio (ankle), while there are doubts surrounding the availability of Joao Veloso and Richard Rios due to fitness issues.
Although Vangelis Pavlidis has scored 19 league goals this season for Jose Mourinho's side, the Greek forward has largely struggled in this competition, scoring just once in 11 appearances (including qualifiers). However, he's expected to lead the line for the Reds at Estadio da Luz.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl, Barreiro, Aursnes, Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup & Pavlidis.
Last five matches
- Benfica 4-0 Estrela
- Juventus 2-0 Benfica
- Rio Ave 0-2 Benfica
- Porto 1-0 Benfica
- Benfica 1-3 Braga
Real Madrid preview: Eyeing their fourth consecutive victory
Things are getting better for Real Madrid on the injury front as Englishman Trent Alexander-Arnold has returned to training with the group alongside Antonio Rudiger. However, Eder Militao and Ferland Mendy remain sidelined.
Aurelien Tchouameni, who was unavailable against Villarreal last time out due to suspension, will be back in midfield for this game, even as the front three of Franco Mastantuono, Vinicius Junior, and Kylian Mbappe are expected to retain their spots in the final third.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Guler, Mastantuono, Vinicius & Mbappe.
Last five matches
- Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 6-1 AS Monaco
- Real Madrid 2-0 Levante
- Albacete 3-2 Real Madrid
- Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe is the UEFA Champions League's top scorer with 11 goals. The former Paris Saint-Germain forward is on a three-game scoring run and will look to extend that streak on Wednesday.