Fresh off the back of another disappointing Champions League result, Benfica return to league action on Sunday when they take on Casa Pia in round 11 of the Primeira Liga. While Os Gansos will be looking to climb out of the relegation zone, the home side could move within one point of league leaders Porto with a win this weekend.
FootballWhispers’ Benfica vs Casa Pia prediction takes a look at the odds of both sides securing all three points at the Estadio da Luz this weekend.
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Benfica vs Casa Pia prediction: AS Aguias to extend unbeaten Primeira Liga streak
Key stats
- Benfica have opened the scoring in each of the previous seven games against Casa Pia, with a combined 17 goals scored across the seven matches.
- Casa Pia have failed to win 11 of their last 13 away matches in the Primeira Liga, losing eight and claiming three draws since the start of February.
- Benfica are one of just two sides yet to lose a league game this season, claiming seven wins and three draws from their 10 matches so far.
- There have been at least three goals scored in each of Casa Pia’s last five matches, a run stretching back to September 21, when they played out a 1-1 draw with Famalicao.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 4-1 Casa Pia
While Benfica’s form in the Champions League has been nothing to write home about, they return to action in the Primeira Liga, where they have enjoyed a dominant campaign and are set to challenge for the title.
In contrast, it has been an underwhelming campaign for Casa Pia, who find themselves scrambling for points at the wrong end of the table, and given the gulf in quality and depth between the two teams, we fancy Benfica to come away with all three points unscathed.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica heavily backed by the bookies
- HOME: 1/6 (1.17) – 85.7%
- DRAW: 13/2 (7.50) – 13.3%
- AWAY: 14/1 (15.00) – 6.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
With an 85.7% win probability, the bookmakers have Benfica down as clear favourites to come out on top at the Estadio da Luz this weekend.
While Casa Pia will be looking to cause an upset and secure their first league win since September, they stand a 6.7% chance of doing that, while there is a 13.3% possibility of the game ending in a stalemate.
While we take a deeper look into both teams, you can take a peek at some of FootballWhispers’ best picks and predictions for this weekend’s fixtures in today’s free football betting tips.
Most recent H2Hs: Benfica leading the way
Benfica have been the dominant side in the history of this fixture, having won five of the previous seven meetings between the two teams.
Casa Pia have managed just one victory in that time, which came in their most recent encounter back in January, when they left As Aguias stunned in a 3-1 win at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Portugal Primeira Liga 25/01/25
Casa Pia
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 17/08/24
Benfica
Casa Pia
Portugal Primeira Liga 17/03/24
Casa Pia
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 28/10/23
Benfica
Casa Pia
Portugal Primeira Liga 04/02/23
Benfica
Casa Pia
Benfica preview: Out to extend dominant league form amid continental woes
Having lost their opening three Champions League matches, Benfica were left empty-handed yet again on Wednesday when they fell to a 1-0 home defeat against Bayer Leverkusen.
While As Aguias are one of just two sides yet to pick up any points on the continental scene, they return to action in the Primeira Liga, where they are unbeaten this season and look set to challenge for their first title since 2023.
Last Saturday’s 3-0 victory over Vitoria de Guimaraes marked Benfica’s seventh league win of the campaign, while they have played out three draws in their 10 games to collect 24 points and sit third in the table.
Jose Mourinho’s side head into the weekend unbeaten in 13 consecutive Primeira Liga home matches, picking up eight wins and five draws since kicking off the year with a 2-1 loss against Braga on January 4.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Obrador, Silva, Araujo, Dahl, Barrenechea, Rios, Prestianni, Lukebakio, Sudakov & Pavlidis
Last five games
- Benfica 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen
- Vitoria de Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica
- Benfica 3-0 Tondela
- Benfica 5-0 Arouca
- Newcastle United 3-0 Benfica
Casa Pia preview: Aiming to pull clear of the danger zone
Casa Pia were on the losing end of an eight-goal thriller against Estrela Amadora last Saturday as they fell to a 5-3 loss in their clash at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Javier Pereira’s men have now failed to taste victory in their last five Primeira Liga games, losing three and claiming two draws since a 2-0 win over Arouca on September 14.
Casa Pia have picked up just eight points from a possible 30 to sit 16th in the league standings, but they could move level on points with ninth-placed Santa Clara with a win this weekend.
However, results on the road leave little room for optimism, as Os Gansos have failed to win 11 of their 13 Primeira Liga away matches, losing eight and claiming three draws since the start of February.
Predicted lineup: Sequeira (GK), Rocha, Fonte, Sousa, Larrazabal, Mohamed, Nhaga, Geraldes, Livolant, Cassiano & Nsona
Last five games
- Casa Pia 3-5 Estrela Amadora
- Braga 4-0 Casa Pia
- Anca FC 0-3 Casa Pia
- Casa Pia 2-2 Estoril Praia
- Moreirense 2-1 Casa Pia
Player to watch — Vangelis Pavlidis
Vanvelis Pavlidis has failed to hit the target in two consecutive games, but with eight goals in nine league starts, the Greek striker will be one to keep an eye on this weekend.
The 26-year-old’s last league goal came in the 5-0 victory over Arouca on October 25, when he netted a hat-trick to put the Arouquenses to the sword at the Estadio da Luz.
Pavlidis has been involved in 18 goals across 25 games for club and country this season, and we expect him to spearhead the Benfica attack once again, alongside Dodi Lukebakio and 23-year-old Georgiy Sudakov.