El Clasico takes place at the Estadi Olimpic this Sunday, with the outcome set to have a huge impact on the Spanish title race. Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Carlo Ancelotti’s side can defeat their eternal rivals for the first time this season.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction: Mbappe to strike in high-scoring draw
Key stats
- Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid betting tips take into account that six of the last seven Barca matches have seen both teams score.
- Real Madrid have drawn 50% of their away league games against teams in the top half heading into matchday 35.
- They’ve won seven of their last eight games in La Liga to stay in the title race.
Correct score prediction: Barcelona 3-3 Real Madrid
El Clasico is the game that always delivers goals, and there’s every reason to expect that to be the case again here, with both sides dealing with some very significant defensive selection issues.
Barca have been much the better side this season, but they are at a disadvantage having played for 120 minutes in Milan in midweek. Real Madrid will be the fresher team and they look capable of putting in their best Clasico performance of the season.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Barca the odds-on favourites
- HOME: 19/20 (1.95) – 51.3%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 51.3% that they win this match.
They come into the game following one of the all-time great Champions League semi-finals, however they were edged out by Inter in extra time on Tuesday, as the Italians claimed a 7-6 aggregate victory.
As for Real Madrid, they’ve not played since Kylian Mbappe’s brace helped them to a 3-2 win at home to Celta Vigo in La Liga last Sunday.
For more from the upcoming matches around Europe, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Hosts targeting fourth Clasico win of the season
Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction suggests Hansi Flick’s side will fall just short here, having already defeated Los Blancos in three competitions so far this season.
There have been at least four goals scored in all of the last five competitive meetings.
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Barcelona preview: Full-back issues continue for Flick
The hosts are missing Jules Kounde to injury, while Alejandro Balde may not be ready for 90 minutes, so they could be weak at full-back again. Robert Lewandowski may return up top, but midfielder Marc Bernal is still sidelined. Marc Casado, Pablo Torre and Andreas Christensen are all rated doubtful.
Predicted Lineup: Szczesny (GK), Martin, Martinez, Cubarsi, E. Garcia, De Jong, Pedri, Raphinha, Olmo, Yamal & Lewandowski
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 W Real Madrid 3 Barcelona 4 UEFA Champions League 06/05/25 L Inter Milan 4 Barcelona 3 Spain La Liga 03/05/25 W Valladolid 1 Barcelona 2 UEFA Champions League 30/04/25 D Inter Milan 3 Barcelona 3 Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25 W Real Madrid 2 Barcelona 3
Real Madrid preview: Los Blancos short on defensive options
For the second match in a row, Real Madrid are missing six players to injury, with Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy all unavailable.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), F. Garcia, Asencio, Tchouameni, Vazquez, Ceballos, Valverde, Bellingham, Guler, Vinicius & Mbappe
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 L Barcelona 4 Real Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 04/05/25 W Celta Vigo 2 Real Madrid 3 Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25 L Barcelona 3 Real Madrid 2 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 W Getafe 0 Real Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 20/04/25 W Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Madrid 1 
Player to watch – Kylian Mbappe
Mbappe’s first season at Real Madrid has been a disappointment from a team perspective, but a Clasico victory would catapult Los Blancos back into serious title contention. With 24 goals in 30 league appearances, the Frenchman is the visiting team’s most likely match winner.
Mbappe chasing down Lewandowski
The 26-year-old is now just one goal shy of Lewandowski in the Pichichi race. Mbappe averages 4.4 shots per game in La Liga this term, compared to Lewandowski’s 3.5.