The Spanish Super Cup title will be at stake when arch-rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid go toe-to-toe with each other at Alinma Stadium on Sunday, 11 January 2026.
View our free Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions below.
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions: Cards expected
Key stats
- At least five cards were awarded in each of the last five El Clasicos.
- Six of the last seven H2Hs went above the 3.5-goal threshold.
- Both teams found the net in seven of Barcelona's last eight encounters with Real Madrid.
Correct score prediction: Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid
To be fair, Real Madrid have strung together a five-match winning streak and are boosted by the return of Kylian Mbappe. However, some of Los Blancos' key defenders have had injuries in recent weeks, so it is unsurprising that they have managed only one clean sheet in their last seven games.
In contrast, Barcelona did not concede a single goal in their last five matches. They have won nine consecutive matches across all competitions and are coming off a comfortable 5-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao in the Spanish Super Cup semifinal.
Although we expect Madrid to halt Barcelona's run of clean sheets, we are leaning toward the Catalan giants for the win, partly due to Madrid's defensive injury crisis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid up against it
- HOME: 20/21 (1.95) – 51.2%
- DRAW: 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%
- AWAY: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
While Barcelona cruised to a comfortable 5-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao, Real Madrid are coming off a hard-fought 2-1 win against Atletico Madrid, one of their biggest rivals, in the Super Cup semifinal.
Ahead of this skirmish, Barcelona are the expected winners at 20/21 (1.95). Teams with these odds generally have a 51.2% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions.
Also, keeping in mind that four or more goals were scored in six of the last seven El Clasicos, over 3.5 total goals has an appealing look at 9/10 (1.90). That one has a 52.6% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Even contest
Real Madrid and Barcelona have five wins apiece in their last 10 encounters (including extra time).
It is important to note that this is the fourth consecutive encounter between these sides in the Spanish Super Cup final, and Barcelona won two of their previous three titles, including a 5-2 victory last season.
Spain La Liga 26/10/25
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Spain La Liga 11/05/25
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Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25
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Spain Super Cup 12/01/25
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Spain La Liga 26/10/24
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Barcelona preview: Looking to defend their title
Veteran goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen (muscle), experienced defender Andreas Christensen (ACL), and La Masia product Gavi (knee) are the confirmed absentees for the Spanish Super Cup final on the side of Barcelona.
Also, Lamine Yamal started on the bench against Athletic Bilbao last time out, but he's expected to be back in the lineup for this encounter, with Raphinha and Ferran Torres the other likely pairings up front.
Predicted lineup: J. Garcia (GK), Kounde, Cubarsi, E. Garcia, Balde, Pedri, De Jong, Yamal, Fermin, Torres & Raphinha.
Last five matches
- Barcelona 5-0 Athletic Bilbao
- Espanyol 0-2 Barcelona
- Villarreal 0-2 Barcelona
- Guadalajara 0-2 Barcelona
- Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna
Real Madrid preview: Injury woes continue
Real Madrid have been boosted by the return of Kylian Mbappe, who has been cleared for this final, meaning his presence could mean a bench role for youngster Gonzalo Garcia.
Antonio Rudiger has been ruled out because of a terrible knee pain, which could force Xabi Alonso to deploy Aurelien Tchouameni at centre-back due to the many defensive injuries bedeviling Los Blancos, as Eder Militao, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Raul Asencio, and Dean Huijsen are all expected to stay out of action here.
Brahim Diaz is with the Moroccan national team for the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations and is not expected to be back in Madrid this weekend.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Mendy, Carreras, Tchouameni, Valverde, Camavinga, Ceballos, Bellingham, Vini, Mbappe & Rodrygo.
Last five matches
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 5-1 Real Betis
- Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla
- Talavera 2-3 Real Madrid
- Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe has an excellent track record against Barcelona, having scored in each of the last four meetings between these sides. The former Paris Saint-Germain forward is currently on a three-game scoring streak and will fancy his chances against Barcelona once again.