Atletico MG will take on Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Serie in the early hours of Friday morning in a match that will have an impact on both ends of the table.
The hosts are currently sitting precariously in mid-table and are just six points clear of the drop zone. A defeat here could plunge them into trouble as we edge closer to the halfway point of the campaign.
Sao Paulo, on the other hand, are flying and currently sit inside the top four. The Brazilian giants will have their eyes firmly set on a first league title in 16 years.
As part of our latest round of Brazilian Serie A betting tips, here is our Atletico MG vs Sao Paulo prediction.
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Atletico MG vs Sao Paulo prediction: More joy for the visitors
Key stats
- Sao Paulo have won six of their last nine away matches in all competitions.
- Atletico MG have won just one of their last seven matches in all competitions.
- Three of Atletico MG's last four matches have seen at least three goals scored while the same can be said for four of Sao Paulo's last five.
- Both teams have scored in two of the last three meetings between these two clubs.
Correct score prediction: Atletico MG 1-2 Sao Paulo
There is no substitute for momentum in football and Sao Paulo are currently riding a massive wave of it as they look to make it five wins in five on Friday morning. The hosts, meanwhile, can't buy a win which makes one here feel very unlikely. Two of Sao Paulo's last four wins have been by this scoreline so who is to say history won't repeat itself here?
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sao Paulo are priced as underdogs
- HOME: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
- DRAW: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%
- AWAY: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Despite Sao Paulo's brilliant form, they are considered the underdogs for this clash. Ladbrokes consider Atletico MG as the favourites to come out on top at 13/10 while the draw is considered just as likely as an away win.
There are a few other matches set to take place in Brazil this week. Check them out via our betting tips for today page.
Last five H2Hs: Advantage Atletico
The Atletico MG vs Sao Paulo odds make more sense when you look at the recent H2H record in this fixture. Atletico MG are unbeaten in their last five matches against Sao Paulo and did the double over them in 2023. Sao Paulo's last victory in this fixture came in 2020 with their last away triumph coming in 2016.
Copa do Brasil 13/09/24
Atletico Mineiro
Sao Paulo
Copa do Brasil 29/08/24
Sao Paulo
Atletico Mineiro
Brazil Serie A 03/12/23
Atletico Mineiro
Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A 06/08/23
Sao Paulo
Atletico Mineiro
Brazil Serie A 02/11/22
Sao Paulo
Atletico Mineiro
Atletico MG preview: A season of disappointment
Atletico MG had a superb season last year, finishing in 3rd place but their fall from grace this season illustrates how volatile Brazilian football currently is. If they can win here and then put a few results together, then they will fancy their chances of still finishing inside the top six.
Predicted lineup: Mendes (GK), Battaglia, Rabello, Fuchs, Franco, Otavio, Monteiro, Scarpa, Paulinho, Hulk & Cadu
Brazil Serie A 11/05/25
W
Fluminense
2
Atletico Mineiro
3
Copa Sudamericana 08/05/25
L
Deportes Iquique
3
Atletico Mineiro
2
Brazil Serie A 05/05/25
W
EC Juventude
0
Atletico Mineiro
1
Copa do Brasil 29/04/25
D
Maringa FC
2
Atletico Mineiro
2
Brazil Serie A 26/04/25
D
Mirassol
2
Atletico Mineiro
2
Sao Paulo preview: Embarking on a title charge
Sao Paulo haven't won the title in Brazil since 2008 but this current group look like they have what it takes to end the long drought. They are just four points adrift of the leaders as things stand and it's difficult to see who can stop them at present.
Predicted lineup: Rafael (GK), Welington, Franco, Arboleda, Vinicius, Alisson, Gustavo, Moura, Rato, Neves & Andre
Brazil Serie A 11/05/25
L
Palmeiras
1
Sao Paulo
0
Copa Libertadores 06/05/25
W
Alianza Lima
0
Sao Paulo
2
Brazil Serie A 03/05/25
D
Fortaleza
0
Sao Paulo
0
Copa do Brasil 30/04/25
W
Nautico
1
Sao Paulo
2
Brazil Serie A 26/04/25
D
Ceara
1
Sao Paulo
1
Player to watch: Luciano
Luciano is having a brilliant season for Sao Paulo and is proving that age is but a number as he continues to shine in Brazil's top flight despite now being on the wrong side of 30. The striker has six goals to his name and trails by just one goal in the race for the Golden Boot.
A man in form
Luciano's best form of the season has come in recent weeks. He has now scored three goals and provided one assist in his last three appearances.