Riyadh Air Metropolitano will host the Madrid derby on Saturday, 27 September 2025, as Atletico and Real Madrid draw swords in the seventh round of La Liga.
View our free Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions below.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions: Goals at both ends
Key stats
- Both teams were on the scoresheet in 10 of the last 11 encounters between these sides.
- Real Madrid have won eight consecutive matches across all competitions.
- Five of Real Madrid's last six games went above the 2.5-goal threshold.
Correct score prediction: Atletico 1-2 Real Madrid
To be fair, Atletico have held their own against Real Madrid in the past, especially at home, as they have lost only once in the last eight H2Hs at this stadium.
However, the hosts’ recent form does not inspire much confidence, having won only two of seven competitive fixtures this season.
Keeping in mind that Real Madrid are on an eight-match winning streak across all competitions, we are leaning toward the visitors for the win.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico are up against it
- HOME: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8%
- DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- AWAY: 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Real Madrid's perfect record in La Liga continued with a 4-1 victory at Levante earlier this week. Xabi Alonso's troops are leading the standings with 18 points from a possible 18, while ninth-placed Atletico Madrid have earned nine points from their first six league games.
Ahead of this encounter, Real Madrid are the expected winners at 13/10 (2.30). Teams with these odds usually have a 43.5% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions.
It is also worth mentioning that four of the last five clashes between these sides went below the 4.5-card line. For this reason, under 4.5 total cards has an appealing look at 1/1 (2.00). That one has a 50% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: An even contest
In the last five Madrid derbies across all competitions, both teams have one win apiece with three draws between them. However, their last three La Liga encounters ended with the same 1-1 scoreline.
UEFA Champions League 13/03/25
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Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 04/03/25
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Spain La Liga 08/02/25
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Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 29/09/24
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Spain La Liga 04/02/24
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Atletico Madrid preview: No new injury concerns
Atletico will remain without the services of Jose Gimenez and Thiago Almada due to injury, with Alex Baena expected to have a place among the substitutes after recovering from a muscular injury.
Alexander Sorloth, who was sent off in the 72nd minute of the clash with Mallorca on 21 September, will be available for selection after serving a one-game ban, but it remains to be seen if the Norwegian will start from the get-go, as Diego Simeone is expected to retain the team that started in the recent win over Rayo Vallecano.
Predicted lineup: Oblak (GK), Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko, Simeone, Koke, Barrios, Gallagher, Griezmann & Alvarez.
Last five matches
- Atletico Madrid 3-2 Rayo Vallecano
- Mallorca 1-1 Atletico Madrid
- Liverpool 3-2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal
- Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid preview: Looking to extend their winning streak
After six consecutive wins to open their La Liga campaign, Los Blancos will look to handle business as usual in the first Madrid derby of the season. However, the team will still be without Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy and Antonio Rudiger for this clash with their city rivals.
Midfield maestro Jude Bellingham could finally start his first match of the season for Los Blancos after coming on as a substitute in the club's last two games since returning from injury.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Carvajal, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras, Tchouameni, Valverde, Bellingham, Guler, Vinicius & Mbappe.
Last five matches
- Levante 1-4 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2-0 Espanyol
- Real Madrid 2-1 Marseille
- Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2-1 Mallorca
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe
With a brace at Levante a few days ago, Kylian Mbappe extended his scoring streak to six matches across all competitions for club and country.
The former Paris Saint-Germain forward is the top scorer in La Liga with seven goals in six league assignments. He will look to extend his scoring run on Saturday.