All eyes will be on Jeddah’s Alinma Stadium as two Madrid sides battle for a place in the final of the Spanish Super Cup on Thursday, 8 January 2025.
View our free Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions below.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions: Goals expected
Key stats
- Eleven of the last 12 Madrid derbies have produced goals at both ends.
- Atletico Madrid opened the scoring in eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- At least three goals were scored in four of both teams’ last five respective games.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid
The last time a tie between Atletico and Real Madrid did not go into extra time was in May 2017.
Since then, these teams have met twice in the Spanish Super Cup, twice in the Copa del Rey, and once in the UEFA Super Cup, and all those encounters were not decided in regulation time. In fact, their two-legged tie in the UEFA Champions League last season was decided after a penalty shootout.
Keeping in mind that both teams have enjoyed some fine form in recent weeks, we believe they will be on level terms after 90 minutes.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico up against it
- HOME: 9/5 (2.80) – 35.7%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Atletico Madrid's four-game winning streak ended with a 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad last weekend. Diego Simeone's troops will set their sights on their first Spanish Super Cup final appearance since the 2019/20 season, where they were beaten to the title by Real Madrid.
While Atletico Madrid have not won the Spanish Super Cup since 2014, Real Madrid were champions two years ago. Los Blancos advanced to the final in each of the last four seasons, winning two of them.
Ahead of this skirmish, Real Madrid are the expected winners at 7/5 (2.40). Teams with these odds generally have a 41.7% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions.
Moreover, there were at least 11 corners in five of Atletico Madrid's last six matches and in each of Real Madrid's last four games. On that note, over 10.5 total corners has an appealing look at 1/1 (2.00). That one has a 50% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Atletico have bragging rights
Atletico Madrid have lost only one of the last 11 Madrid derbies in regulation time. They cruised to a comfortable 5-2 victory over Real Madrid when these teams clashed in La Liga earlier this season.
Spain La Liga 27/09/25
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 13/03/25
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 04/03/25
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 08/02/25
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 29/09/24
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid preview: No new injury concerns
Atletico Madrid will enter this clash with fewer injury issues than their city rivals. Pablo Barrios is doubtful with a calf problem; however, Clement Lenglet and Nicolas Gonzalez are both ruled out due to injury.
Simeone will rely on the services of Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez up front, as these forwards showcased attacking excellence during the first Madrid derby last September.
Predicted lineup: Oblak (GK), Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri, Simeone, Koke, Gallagher, Baena, Sorloth & Alvarez.
Last five matches
- Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid
- Girona 0-3 Atletico Madrid
- Baleares 2-3 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia
- PSV 2-3 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid preview: Looking to extend their winning streak
As for Real Madrid, there are also key injury absentees for this big game, including Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, and star forward Kylian Mbappe, with the latter failing to get clearance from the medical team to feature in this match. However, there is hope that the Frenchman will return for the final should Los Blancos make it.
Academy graduate Gonzalo Garcia bagged his first hat trick for Real Madrid over the weekend against Real Betis, putting him in good condition for this game. The youngster is expected to start in the final third alongside Rodrygo Goes and Vinicius Junior.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Bellingham, Rodrygo, G. Garcia & Vinicius.
Last five matches
- Real Madrid 5-1 Real Betis
- Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla
- Talavera 2-3 Real Madrid
- Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 1-2 Man City
Player to watch: Julian Alvarez
Julian Alvarez put in a man-of-the-match performance the last time these teams clashed, scoring a brace in Atletico's 5-2 victory over Real Madrid. The former Man City forward has four goals in the last four meetings between these teams and will fancy his chances against Real Madrid once again.