Two of last season’s top four meet in the Spanish top flight on Sunday. Our Atletico Madrid vs Girona prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether it’ll be a bright start at home for Los Rojiblancos who have been busy this summer.
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Atletico Madrid vs Girona prediction: Simeone’s side to win open game
Key stats
- Our Atletico Madrid vs Girona betting tips take into account that Los Rojiblancos won 84% of their home games last season in La Liga.
- They won 10 home matches last season by margins of two or more goals.
- Girona have lost five of their last nine away league games, winning just two.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona
With a massively depleted squad after a host of notable departures, it’s hard to see Girona being anywhere near to Atletico Madrid this season, having finished above them last term.
With Julian Alvarez expected to make his first start and Conor Gallagher also available, there’s plenty of optimism at the Estadio Metropolitano. Given their usually strong home record, Atleti should boss this one.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atleti the clear favourites
- HOME: 4/11 (1.36) – 73.3%
- DRAW: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%
- AWAY: 15/2 (8.50) – 11.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the red hot favourites according to the Atletico Madrid vs Girona odds with an implied probability of 73.3% that they take all the points.
It wasn’t a totally convincing start for Diego Simeone’s team though as they could only draw 2-2 at Villarreal on matchday one, despite a debut goal from Alexander Sorloth.
Girona also started with an away draw with teenager Gabriel Misehouy coming off the bench to score a debut goal against Betis.
For more picks, today’s free football tips take a look at some of the best options from the action across Europe this weekend.
Most recent H2Hs: Goals galore last term
Our Atletico Madrid vs Girona prediction suggests we could see a repeat of the 3-1 win for the side from the capital when the clubs met in April. The teams also played out a thriller at Montilivi in January with Alvaro Morata scoring a hat-trick for the visitors, but Girona winning 4-3. The Catalans have never won on this ground though.
Spain La Liga 13/04/24
Atletico Madrid
Girona
Spain La Liga 03/01/24
Girona
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 13/03/23
Girona
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 08/10/22
Atletico Madrid
Girona
Spain La Liga 02/04/19
Atletico Madrid
Girona
Atletico Madrid preview: Sorloth to miss out?
Despite a debut goal, Alexander Sorloth was replaced at half-time at Villarreal and may lose his place to fellow new arrival Julian Alvarez on Sunday. Gallagher is also expected to be on the bench after joining from Chelsea.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Le Normand, Gimenez, Azpilicueta, Lino, Barrios, Koke, Llorente, Griezmann, Riquelme & Alvarez
UEFA Champions League 02/10/24 L Benfica 4 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 29/09/24 D Real Madrid 1 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 26/09/24 W Celta Vigo 0 Atletico Madrid 1 Spain La Liga 22/09/24 D Rayo Vallecano 1 Atletico Madrid 1 UEFA Champions League 19/09/24 W RB Leipzig 1 Atletico Madrid 2
Girona preview: Michel to favour experience
While it was youngsters Misehouy and Iker Almena who combined for the Girona goal on the opening day, Michel may still prefer his more experienced players in such a tough game. He has no serious injury concerns.
Predicted Lineup: Gazzaniga (GK), Miguel Gutierrez, Blind, David Lopez, Arnau Martinez, Ivan Martin, Romeu, Herrera, Gil, Abel Ruiz & Portu
UEFA Champions League 02/10/24 L Feyenoord 3 Girona 2 Spain La Liga 29/09/24 D Celta Vigo 1 Girona 1 Spain La Liga 25/09/24 D Rayo Vallecano 0 Girona 0 Spain La Liga 21/09/24 L Valencia 2 Girona 0 UEFA Champions League 18/09/24 L PSG 1 Girona 0
Player to watch – Julian Alvarez
The most expensive signing in La Liga this summer, the addition of Alvarez is a real coup for Atleti, although not a cheap one. He made 31 Premier League starts last term, scoring 11 and assisting nine goals.
A versatile forward
Alvarez may play as the central striker here with Antoine Griezmann operating behind him. However he could also play alongside or just off Sorloth in a front two with a passing accuracy of 90.8% in the English top flight last term, testament to his many qualities.
