It’s Basque derby weekend in La Liga, with Athletic making the trip to the Reale Arena. Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction and La Liga betting tips consider which side is most likely to prevail.
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Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction: La Real to grab the only goal
Key stats
- Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club betting tips take into account that the last four away games involving Los Leones have all ended with 0-0 or 1-0 scorelines.
- Five of Real Sociedad’s seven home wins in La Liga have come to nil.
- Three of those victories came against top-six opponents.
Correct score prediction: Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Club
Real Sociedad have not had a particularly convincing season, but they have produced some big home performances against the stronger sides, including a 1-0 win over Barcelona earlier in the campaign.
They won’t be lacking motivation on derby day, and with Athletic expected to rest a host of key players three days on from their Europa League semi-final against Manchester United, this game could go the way of Imanol’s side.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hosts the slight favourites
- HOME: 29/20 (2.45) – 40.8%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- AWAY: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club odds, with an implied probability of 40.8% that they win this match.
They head into the game following a 1-0 defeat in another Basque derby, away against Alaves last time out.
As for Athletic, their Europa League dream suffered a crushing blow on Thursday, with Manchester United winning 3-0 at San Mames.
For more from the upcoming matches around Europe, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Home advantage key in the derby
Our Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction suggests this game will follow the recent trend which has seen all of the last five league meetings won by the side playing at home.
Imanol, who will vacate his role as Real Sociedad boss at the end of the season, has never lost at home to Athletic during his seven-year reign.
Spain La Liga 24/11/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 13/01/24
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 30/09/23
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga 15/04/23
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga 14/01/23
Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao
Real Sociedad preview: Aguerd to return?
La Real should be boosted by the return to fitness of key centre-back Nayef Aguerd. They are missing Igor Zubeldia, Arsen Zakharyan and Orri Oskarsson to injuries though.
Predicted Lineup: Remiro (GK), Munoz, Aguerd, Martin, Aramburu, B. Mendez, Zubimendi, Sucic, S. Gomez, Oyarzabal & Kubo
Spain La Liga 10/05/25 L Atletico Madrid 4 Real Sociedad 0 Spain La Liga 04/05/25 D Athletic Bilbao 0 Real Sociedad 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 L CD Alaves 1 Real Sociedad 0 Spain La Liga 20/04/25 D Villarreal 2 Real Sociedad 2 Spain La Liga 12/04/25 L Mallorca 2 Real Sociedad 0
Athletic Club preview: Valverde expected to rotate
Ernesto Valverde made 10 changes following Athletic’s Europa League quarter-final win over Rangers, and we could see a large number again here. They’ll definitely have to cope without their injured top scorer Oihan Sancet, while Oscar De Marcos is also a doubt.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Boiro, Nunez, Vivian, Gorosabel, Prados, Ruiz de Galarreta, N. Williams, U. Gomez, Djalo & Guruzeta
Spain La Liga 11/05/25 W CD Alaves 0 Athletic Bilbao 1 UEFA Europa League 08/05/25 L Man Utd 4 Athletic Bilbao 1 Spain La Liga 04/05/25 D Real Sociedad 0 Athletic Bilbao 0 UEFA Europa League 01/05/25 L Man Utd 3 Athletic Bilbao 0 Spain La Liga 23/04/25 W Las Palmas 0 Athletic Bilbao 1 
Player to watch – Mikel Oyarzabal
Real Sociedad forward Mikel Oyarzabal looks like the most likely source of a goal in this game. The Spain international has scored eight goals in his last seven appearances for club and country.
Oyarzabal starting to fire
The 28-year-old has moved onto 17 goals for his club this season thanks to his good form. He’s averaging 1.1 shots per game in La Liga, some way down on his Europa League average of 1.9.