Having beaten Borussia Dortmund 4-3 in the Champions League knockout phase play-offs, Atalanta will aim to slay another German side when they take on Bayern Munich in Bergamo in the last-16 first leg on Tuesday evening.
The Serie A outfit have won four of their last five meetings with German opposition, but they are up against a side that have lost only two of their last 16 UEFA matches against Italian teams.
View our Atalanta vs Bayern Munich predictions with odds from Bet365 below.
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Atalanta vs Bayern Munich predictions: Bavarian giants to maintain winning run
Key stats
- Bayern have won six games in a row and are undefeated in the last eight.
- Atalanta have not won in their past three games.
- The home side have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches.
- There were fewer than 11 corners in each of Bayern's last five matches.
Correct score prediction: Atalanta 1-2 Bayern Munich
Atalanta have lost the home leg in only five of their 24 previous UEFA two-legged ties and have suffered just one defeat in their five home matches against German opposition.
Bayern, on the other hand, have won 13 of their last 14 Champions League round-of-16 ties, including each of the last six, while Vincent Kompany's side look almost unstoppable at the moment, having lost just once in their last 19 matches.
All of Atalanta's last five matches have produced over 2.5 goals, while at least three goals have been scored in eight of Bayern's last nine matches, so we are confident that the Bavarian giants will emerge victorious with both sides scoring in what should be a tense affair.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayern clear favourites
- HOME: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
- DRAW: 7/2 (4.5) – 22.2%
- AWAY: 8/13 (1.62) – 61.7%
*Odds from Bet365, subject to change
The odds above suggest Bayern Munich are strong favourites to win the game, with bet365 pricing them at 8/13 (1.62), implying a 61.7% probability of victory.
The Bavarian giants suffered their only defeat against Arsenal in the group phase and won their remaining matches, while they have also been in phenomenal form in the Bundesliga, opening up an 11-point lead at the top of the table.
However, the German champions have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three games, while both teams have scored in seven of their last nine matches, therefore BTTS – Yes at 1/2 (1.5) looks attractive.
Atalanta have conceded the opening goal in five of their last six matches, while Bayern are backed to score first at 8/15 (1.53) in this contest.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Atalanta vs Bayern Munich predictions.
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Most recent H2Hs: First time meeting
Given the rich pedigree of the two sides, it is somewhat surprising that they have never faced each other before.
While Atalanta boast a strong recent record against German opposition, Bayern are riding high on momentum and possess enough quality to secure a win in the away leg.
Atalanta preview: Can they produce another magical European night at home?
La Dea have already produced a classic comeback, recovering from a two-goal deficit in the first leg of the playoffs to knock Dortmund out of the competition.
After Inter Milan were eliminated in the playoffs, Atalanta remain Italy’s last representative in the 2025–26 Champions League, and they are more than capable of raising their level, especially in front of their home fans.
The 2024 Europa League winners, however, come into this match following two disappointing Serie A results, and although they have beaten German opponents before, Bayern could present their sternest challenge yet.
Charles De Ketelaere remains sidelined with a knee injury, while Giorgio Scalvini is serving a UEFA suspension. Raffaele Palladino hopes to welcome Ederson back, while skipper Marten de Roon should return to the starting line-up after being rested in the previous game against Udinese.
Predicted lineup: Carnesecchi (GK), Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac, Zappacosta, De Roon, Pasalic, Bernasconi, Samardzic, Zalewski & Scamacca
Last five matches
- 07/03/26: Atalanta 2-2 Udinese (Serie A)
- 04/03/26: Lazio 2-2 Atalanta (Coppa Italia)
- 01/03/26: Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 25/02/26: Atalanta 4-1 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 22/02/26: Atalanta 2-1 Napoli (Serie A)
Bayern Munich preview: Juggernaut rolls on
The Bavarian giants are in a league of their own and rank among the strong favourites to lift this season’s competition.
Bayern have been head and shoulders above the rest in the Bundesliga, giving the impression that Kompany’s side can still find another gear when needed.
While their forward line has been the envy of Europe, the team still needs to tighten up defensively, particularly in the absence of Manuel Neuer, who sustained an injury against Borussia Monchengladbach in their previous game.
Predicted lineup: Urbig (GK), Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Laimer, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Olise, Gnabry, Diaz & Kane
Last five matches
- 06/03/26: Bayern Munich 4-1 Borussia Monchengladbach (Bundesliga)
- 28/02/26: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 21/02/26: Bayern Munich 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
- 14/02/26: Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 11/02/26: Bayern Munich 2-0 RB Leipzig (DFB-Pokal)
Player to watch: Harry Kane
The England striker has been enjoying a phenomenal campaign for Bayern Munich this season, having already scored 45 goals in all competitions, including eight in the Champions League.
The 32-year-old has scored in Bayern’s last three Champions League round-of-16 matches, while he is just two goals away from reaching the 50-goal mark in the competition.