Atalanta will host Athletic Bilbao at the Gewiss Stadium on Wednesday evening for the UEFA Champions League group phase encounter.
The home team approach this Champions League fixture in a strong position, having already secured at least a place in the knockout play-offs thanks to four victories from six league-phase matches.
Momentum is firmly with La Dea, as another success would see them register four straight wins in the competition for the first time, significantly improving their chances of a top-eight finish.
Domestic form has been slightly less convincing, highlighted by a 1-1 draw at Pisa last week, but that result does little to mask an impressive wider run that has brought nine wins from their last 12 outings in all competitions.
Their home record further underlines their threat, with six victories in the last seven matches in Bergamo, four achieved with clean sheets.
Athletic Club arrive under pressure, sitting two points adrift of the top 24 and with qualification now realistically limited to the play-off route.
Their Champions League campaign has lacked cutting edge, as they have drawn blanks in their last three matches in the competition. Their form offers little reassurance either, with defeats in four of their last seven games against Spanish opposition.
Away from home, consistency has been elusive throughout the season, leaving the Basque side facing a difficult task against an Atalanta team that has made their home ground a formidable venue.
Read our Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao predictions and preview to find out, and remember to check our other UEFA Champions League predictions.
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Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao prediction: Home team to claim narrow win
Key statistics
- Atalanta have won four of their last five home games in all competitions.
- La Dea have won three of their last five games in the Serie A.
- Both teams have played BTTS in four of their last five games in their respective leagues.
Correct score prediction: Atalanta 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
We expect the home team to capitalise on their superior momentum and secure a narrow victory in this European clash. We predict a 2-1 win for Atalanta because the Orobici have turned their stadium into a fortress and have shown a clinical edge in big games this season.
Raffaele Palladino has successfully tightened the defence, while the attacking rotations continue to baffle opponents. While Athletic Bilbao possess the grit to stay in the game and likely find the net through their direct style, the home side will likely get a narrow win.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Atalanta favoured to win
- Home: 17/20 (1.85) – 54.1%
- Draw: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
- Away: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
Odds provided by Ladbrokes. Subject to change.
Going into this contest, the markets give Atalanta the edge, with odds of 1.85 suggesting just over a 54% chance of a home victory. Bilbao are viewed as outsiders at 4.00, translating to a 25% implied probability, while the draw sits in between at 3.50 (28.6%).
Overall, the odds point to Atalanta as narrow favourites, though the relatively generous draw and away odds hint at a potentially competitive encounter rather than a one-sided affair.
Most recent head-to-head: No previous meetings
There is very little recent data to draw upon, as the two clubs have rarely crossed paths in European competition. This marks their first significant competitive showdown in the modern Champions League era.
Both teams have built reputations for high-pressure football, which suggests that their first official encounter will be a high-intensity affair.
After reviewing our key Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao predictions, be sure to visit our website for the remaining football betting tips today.
Atalanta preview: Absentees in the team
Atalanta head into this fixture with several enforced changes at the back, as Ben Godfrey, Berat Djimsiti, Raoul Bellanova and Mitchel Bakker are all sidelined through injury. The concentration of absentees in defensive areas may test the depth, though the host still retain enough quality to remain competitive.
Predicted lineup: Carnesecchi (GK), Kossounou, Hien, Kolasinac, Musah, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi, De Ketelaere, Lookman & Scamacca
Last five fixtures
- 16.01.26 – Pisa 1–1 Atalanta
- 10.01.26 – Atalanta 2–0 Torino
- 07.01.26 – Bologna 0–2 Atalanta
- 03.01.26 – Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma
- 28.12.25 – Atalanta 0–1 Inter
Athletic Bilbao preview: Long injury list for the visitors
Athletic Club face more extensive selection problems, with Yeray Alvarez suspended and a host of first-team players unavailable due to injury. Unai Eguiluz, Aymeric Laporte, Benat Prados, Mikel Vesga, Maroan Sannadi and Nico Serrano all miss out, significantly limiting the team's options and forcing potential reshuffles.
Predicted lineup: Simon (GK), Areso, Vivian, Berchiche, Boiro, Jauregizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, Berenguer, Sancet, Nico Williams & Inaki Williams
Last five fixtures
- 17.01.26 – Mallorca 3–2 Athletic Bilbao
- 13.01.26 – Cultural Leonesa 3–3 Athletic Bilbao
- 07.01.26 – Barcelona 5–0 Athletic Bilbao
- 03.01.26 – Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Bilbao
- 22.12.25 – Athletic Bilbao 1–2 Espanyol
Player to watch: Nikola Krstovic
Nikola Krstovic is the player to watch for the home side as he continues to lead the line with great effect. This season, the striker has been in impressive form, with five goals and three assists, including a vital strike in the recent match against Pisa.
His physicality and ability to link play make him the primary threat to an injury-hit Bilbao defence and we expect him to be the difference-maker on Wednesday night.