Real Madrid need a monumental turnaround to beat Arsenal at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in the second leg of the quarter-final of the Champions League on Wednesday, 16 April. Read our Champions League predictions for the clash below.
Contents
- 1 Real Madrid vs Arsenal prediction: Goals likely under the lights in Madrid
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid are odds-on favourites
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: Arsenal in command
- 4 Real Madrid preview: Tchouameni should return
- 5 Arsenal preview: No Partey for visitors
- 6 Player to watch – Declan Rice
Real Madrid vs Arsenal prediction: Goals likely under the lights in Madrid
Key Stats
- Real Madrid have lost only one of their last 18 home games in the Champions League.
- Vinicius Junior has scored seven times in the Champions League for Real Madrid this season.
- Real Madrid have been conceding 5.57 shots on target per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season.
Correct score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Arsenal
Only Inter (3) have conceded fewer goals than Arsenal (6) in the Champions League this season and the resolute Gunners could do just enough to thwart a Real Madrid comeback in Spain. Los Blancos conceded exactly once in each of their last three home games in the competition, so Arsenal can register.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid are odds-on favourites
- HOME: 4/6 (1.67) – 60%
- DRAW: 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%
- AWAY: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Real Madrid rebounded from last week’s 3-0 loss to Arsenal with a hard-fought 1-0 win at Alaves and the markets have given Los Blancos 60% chance of winning again on Wednesday. Real have just an 11/2 shot at qualifying for the semi-finals, however.
Arsenal dropped points at home to Brentford (1-1) in the Premier League at the weekend, however, the 4/1 underdogs have made progression to the UCL semis a priority. Check out our football tips page for more of the best Champions League predictions.
Most recent H2Hs: Arsenal in command
Arsenal produced a superb display in their 3-0 win over Real Madrid in last week’s first leg in North London and that was the clubs’ first competitive encounter since 2006.
UEFA Champions League 08/04/25
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Elite Club Friendlies 24/07/19
Real Madrid
Arsenal
Real Madrid preview: Tchouameni should return
Ferland Mendy, Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal are injured and unavailable for Real Madrid while Eduardo Camavinga is suspended having been sent off in the first leg. Kylian Mbappe was sent off for a horror tackle against Alaves at the weekend, though he is free to feature on Wednesday. Aurelien Tchouameni also returns from suspension.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Vasquez, Asencio, Rudiger, Alaba, Valverde, Bellingham, Tchouameni, Rodrygo, Vinicius, Mbappe
Spain La Liga 11/05/25
L
Barcelona
4
Real Madrid
3
Spain La Liga 04/05/25
W
Celta Vigo
2
Real Madrid
3
Spain Copa del Rey 26/04/25
L
Barcelona
3
Real Madrid
2
Spain La Liga 23/04/25
W
Getafe
0
Real Madrid
1
Spain La Liga 20/04/25
W
Athletic Bilbao
0
Real Madrid
1
Arsenal preview: No Partey for visitors
Arsenal will be without Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are sidelined through injury, while Thomas Partey is being left at home. Jorginho could be drafted into Mikel Arteta's midfield to replace Partey.
Predicted lineup: Raya (GK), Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly, Jorginho, Odegaard, Rice, Saka, Martinelli, Merino
England Premier League 11/05/25
D
Liverpool
2
Arsenal
2
UEFA Champions League 07/05/25
L
PSG
2
Arsenal
1
England Premier League 03/05/25
L
Bournemouth
2
Arsenal
1
UEFA Champions League 29/04/25
L
PSG
1
Arsenal
0
England Premier League 23/04/25
D
Crystal Palace
2
Arsenal
2
Player to watch – Declan Rice
Declan Rice was undoubtedly the star of the show in Arsenal’s sensational 3-0 quarter-final first-leg win over Real Madrid at The Emirates Stadium, hitting two “Roy of the Rovers” style free kicks from distance past Thibaut Courtois.
Could Rice be the protagonist again?
Rampaging midfielder Rice will probably have more of a defensive remit in Wednesday’s second leg, though the England regular can still have a big say in the outcome of the contest, albeit from a less attacking perspective.