Newcastle take a two-goal lead into the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final at home against Arsenal on Wednesday night but the Gunners head into the game as the form favourite.
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Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction: The Magpies to qualify?
Key Stats
- Newcastle have lost their last two home games against Fulham and Bournemouth.
- Arsenal have scored at least two goals in five of their last six matches.
- Newcastle have found the back of the net in each of their last six fixtures.
Correct score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal
We're backing Arsenal to win on Wednesday night but only by a one-goal margin which means that Newcastle will still progress into the EFL Cup final. The Gunners are in great form right now with five wins from their last six but Newcastle have goals in them and we're expecting the hosts to do just enough to edge past their guests from the capital.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Arsenal the favourite
- HOME: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- DRAW: 11/4 (3.75) – 26.7%
- AWAY: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Arsenal are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 44.4% but Newcastle head into the second leg with a two-goal buffer.
You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.
Most recent H2Hs: Newcastle lead
The Magpies edge the recent meetings between these two clubs, picking up three wins and two defeats from the duo's last five encounters.
England EFL Cup 07/01/25
Arsenal
Newcastle
England Premier League 02/11/24
Newcastle
Arsenal
England Premier League 24/02/24
Arsenal
Newcastle
England Premier League 04/11/23
Newcastle
Arsenal
England Premier League 07/05/23
Newcastle
Arsenal
Newcastle preview: Lost last two at St James' Park
Eddie Howe's side took the lead at home against Fulham on Saturday when Jacob Murphy finished from close range in the 37th minute.
The Magpies hit the woodwork twice in this game but all the luck was on the side of the visitors who equalised just after the hour mark and went on to win the game thanks to an 82nd-minute effort from Rodrigo Muniz.
Jamaal Lascelles, Harvey Barnes and Callum Wilson will miss the second leg through injury while Joelinton is expected to return in time to face the Gunners.
Predicted lineup: Dubravka (GK), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Hall, Murphy, Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton, Isak & Gordon
England Premier League 13/04/25
W
Man Utd
1
Newcastle
4
England Premier League 07/04/25
W
Leicester
0
Newcastle
3
England Premier League 02/04/25
W
Brentford
1
Newcastle
2
England EFL Cup 16/03/25
W
Liverpool
1
Newcastle
2
England Premier League 10/03/25
W
West Ham
0
Newcastle
1
Arsenal preview: Gunners in great form
Arsenal put in a five-star performance at home against Manchester City on Sunday to keep their title hopes alive.
Martin Odegaard set the tone of the game after just two minutes when he fired Arsenal in front. However, the Citizens got back onto level terms in the 55th minute but this only inspired a huge response from the home side who went on to score four more times to claim a 5-1 victory which included goals from young English players Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri.
Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu could all miss Wednesday's trip to St James' Park.
Predicted lineup: Raya (GK), Gabriel, Timber, Saliba, Partey, Odegaard, Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Trossard, Havertz & Martinelli
England Premier League 12/04/25
D
Brentford
1
Arsenal
1
UEFA Champions League 08/04/25
W
Real Madrid
0
Arsenal
3
England Premier League 05/04/25
D
Everton
1
Arsenal
1
England Premier League 01/04/25
W
Fulham
1
Arsenal
2
England Premier League 16/03/25
W
Chelsea
0
Arsenal
1
Player to watch: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak scored one of Newcastle's goals in the 2-0 first-leg win over Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium last month and you wouldn't bet against the Swedish striker scoring again on Wednesday night.
Isak has been in fantastic form of late, netting 11 goals in his last nine outings for the Magpies in league and cup, and leads the way for Newcastle this season with 19 goals across all competitions this season.
Will Isak fire the Magpies into the EFL Cup final?
While we have backed Arsenal to win on Wednesday night, if Newcastle can keep things tight and Isak can nick a goal, we can see the Magpies making it through to the EFL Cup final.