Argentina make the short trip to Montevideo for a 2026 World Cup qualifier this week. Our Uruguay vs Argentina prediction considers the outcome as the top two sides after 12 matches in South American qualifying meet.
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Uruguay vs Argentina prediction: Alvarez to strike last in draw
Key stats
- Our Uruguay vs Argentina betting tips take into account that Marcelo Bielsa’s side has only claimed one win in regulation time in their last 10 matches.
- Argentina have only picked up one point from their last three away World Cup qualifiers.
- They’ve only failed to score in one of their last 15 away fixtures in World Cup qualifying.
Correct score prediction: Uruguay 1-1 Argentina
These two sides were dominant in the early part of World Cup qualifying in this region, but both have slipped up on a number of occasions so far in the 2024/25 season.
Without talisman Leo Messi, Argentina may not be at their best, but a draw would still keep Uruguay firmly on course for the finals, and there’s a good chance that this one ends level.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies struggling to call it
- HOME: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
- DRAW: 19/10 (2.90) – 34.5%
- AWAY: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the very slight favourites according to the Uruguay vs Argentina odds, with an implied probability of 37.0% that they win this match.
They head into the game following a 1-1 draw in Brazil in their last match back in November, with Fede Valverde on target in that one.
As for Argentina, they saw off Peru 1-0 last time out, with Lautaro Martinez firing in the only goal.
For more from the upcoming internationals, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Uruguay targeting historic double
Our Uruguay vs Argentina prediction suggests the hosts will fall just short of winning home and away against their rivals in a World Cup qualifying campaign for the first time.
Recent meetings have often been tight, with six of the last eight encounters serving up under 2.5 goals.
South America - World Cup Qualifying 17/11/23
Argentina
Uruguay
South America - World Cup Qualifying 12/11/21
Uruguay
Argentina
South America - World Cup Qualifying 11/10/21
Argentina
Uruguay
Copa America 19/06/21
Argentina
Uruguay
International Match 18/11/19
Argentina
Uruguay
Uruguay preview: Ugarte serves ban
The hosts are missing the suspended Manuel Ugarte, but they are doing well on the selection front apart from that.
Predicted Lineup: Rochet (GK), Saracchi, Olivera, Gimenez, Varela, Bentancur, Valverde, De la Cruz, M. Araujo, Nunez & Pellistri
South America - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/25 D Bolivia 0 Uruguay 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25 L Argentina 1 Uruguay 0 South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/11/24 D Brazil 1 Uruguay 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/11/24 W Colombia 2 Uruguay 3 South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24 D Ecuador 0 Uruguay 0
Argentina preview: Messi missing for La Albiceleste
The visitors are without Messi who has pulled out with an injury. Paulo Dybala, Giovani Lo Celso and Gonzalo Montiel have also withdrawn.
Predicted Lineup: E. Martinez (GK), Montiel, Otamendi, Balerdi, Tagliafico, De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Correa, L. Martinez & Alvarez
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25 W Brazil 1 Argentina 4 South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25 W Uruguay 0 Argentina 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 20/11/24 W Peru 0 Argentina 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 14/11/24 L Paraguay 2 Argentina 1 South America - World Cup Qualifying 16/10/24 W Bolivia 0 Argentina 6 
Player to watch – Julian Alvarez
One of the form strikers in Europe right now is Julian Alvarez and he’ll be hoping to take that form onto the international stage. The forward has scored 23 times for Atletico Madrid already this term.
Alvarez scoring late
A total of 26% of the Atleti striker’s club goals have come after the 75th minute. He has scored some vital late winners in Spain, and he has also netted a couple of goals so far on the road to the 2026 World Cup with Argentina.