Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, odds & betting tips – 21/02/2026

It is third versus fourth in round 24 of the 2025-26 Eredivisie season, as Ajax face NEC Nijmegen at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Saturday.

With Feyenoord not in action until Sunday evening, both Ajax and NEC have the chance to temporarily go second in the standings, albeit only on goal difference.

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: NEC to leave Amsterdam empty-handed

Key stats

• Six of Ajax's last seven matches have seen both teams score, and the same holds for seven of NEC's last eight games.
• Both teams have also played out mild-tempered affairs more often than not, with each of Ajax's last five matches – and six of NEC's last eight affairs – producing fewer than five cautions.
• This weekend's hosts are on a three-game unbeaten streak and have lost just one of their last seven games.

Correct score prediction: Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen

NEC (39) and Ajax (40) have conceded the most goals of any Eredivisie top-half team, and both defences are unlikely to record a clean sheet on Saturday.

An open and end-to-end affair is on the cards here, with the home side just about doing enough to see off their visitors.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hosts given the vote of confidence

• HOME: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
• DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
• AWAY: 14/5 (3.80) – 26.3%

*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Winning eight of their 12 home league matches this season, Ajax have been a force to reckon with in front of their fans, and a 55.6% win probability against NEC suggests another home win is likely for Fred Grim's men.

Last week's 4-1 demolition of Fortuna Sittard was a more than welcome boost for de Godenzonen, who had gone three matches without a win before that.

For NEC, Saturday's visit to the Johan Cruyff Arena represents a tough task, as Dick Schreuder plots to snap his side's two-game winless run after a 1-1 draw against Sparta Rotterdam last time out.

That extended Eniesee's unbeaten away run to seven matches, during which they have won five.

For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football betting tips look at some of the best picks.

Most recent H2Hs: Wins have been few and far between for NEC

Despite running out emphatic 3-0 winners on their last visit to Amsterdam, NEC have barely had a sniff against Ajax, winning just one of the last 31 meetings since 2005.

Netherlands Eredivisie 20/12/25

NEC

2

Ajax

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 11/05/25

Ajax

0

NEC

3

Netherlands Eredivisie 01/12/24

NEC

1

Ajax

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 18/02/24

Ajax

2

NEC

2

Netherlands Eredivisie 03/12/23

NEC

1

Ajax

2

Ajax preview: Long road to recovery for Oleksandr Zinchenko

Featuring in only his second game for Ajax since joining on loan from Arsenal, Zinchenko suffered a knee injury, which will rule him out for the rest of the season.

Owen Wijndal is expected to be the beneficiary of Zinchenko's absence, manning the left-back position.

Predicted lineup: Jaros (GK), Gaaei, Sutalo, Baas, Wijndal, Klaassen, Regeer, Steur, Bounida, Dolberg & Godts

Ajax's last five matches:

• 14/02/26: Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
• 08/02/26: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax (Eredivisie)
• 01/02/26: Excelsior 2-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
• 28/01/26: Ajax 1-2 Olympiacos (Champions League)
• 24/01/26: Ajax 2-0 Volendam (Eredivisie)

NEC Nijmegen preview: Koki Ogawa set for most productive season in Dutch football

Ogawa came off the bench to score for NEC against Sparta, moving him up to eight league goals for the campaign to go along with three assists.

His tally of 11 direct goal contributions is just one shy of the 12 he got in 2023-24, and with 11 games left this season, the Japanese forward is closing in on a new personal best.

Predicted lineup: Crettaz (GK), Fonville, Kaplan, Dasa, Onal, Sano, Nejasmic, Ouaissa, Lebreton, Chery & Linssen

NEC Nijmegen's last five matches:

• 17/02/26: Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC (Eredivisie)
• 11/02/26: NEC 1-3 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
• 07/02/26: NEC 4-1 Heracles (Eredivisie)
• 04/02/26: NEC 1-0 Volendam (KNVB Beker)
• 31/01/26: AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC (Eredivisie)

Player to watch – Mika Godts

After his man-of-the-match display against Fortuna, where he racked up two goals and an assist, Mika Godts now has the most direct goal contributions (20) in this season's Eredivisie.

The 20-year-old was on target for Ajax against NEC back in December and is one to look out for this weekend.