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Greek outfit AEK Athens and La Liga side Rayo Vallecano reconvene at the Alwyn Arena on Thursday evening for the conclusion of their Conference League quarter-final tie.
Down by three after last week's first-leg mauling, the home side have it all to do if they are to mount a comeback and set up a last-four meeting against Mainz or Strasbourg.
In addition to our AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano prediction below, check out the rest of today's betting tips.
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AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano key stats
- AEK Athens have not lost consecutive matches this season and have followed every of their defeats so far with a victory.
- They are also unbeaten in five of their last six home outings, although the only defeat in that span did come on European duty.
- Rayo, meanwhile, have struggled on their travels lately, winning just two of nine away matches since the turn of the year.
AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano preview: Will AEK's strong home form inspire an epic comeback?
| AEK Athens | vs | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 1st (Super League 1) | Position | 13th (La Liga) |
| 60 | Points | 35 |
| 49 | Goals For | 29 |
| 17 | Goals Against | 38 |
| 16 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 2nd | Home Rank | 11th |
| 2nd | Away Rank | 16th |
AEK Athens' Conference League campaign began on a disappointing note, as they fell 3-1 to Celje on the opening matchday. However, they responded impressively, recording four wins and a draw from their next five group-stage fixtures to amass 13 points from a possible 15.
This run saw Marko Nikolic's men secure a third-place finish in the league phase, allowing them to avoid the extra hurdle of a play-off tie to reach the knockout stages in what is already a demanding season.
With only five games left in the Greek top flight, the Yellow-Blacks are two points clear of Olympiacos, putting them in pole position for a first league title since the 2022-23 campaign under Matias Almeyda.
Unbeaten in 14 consecutive away matches prior to last week's trip to Spain, AEK Athens were left shell-shocked at full time, but must now rally if they are to have any chance of reaching their first European semi-final in 49 years.
As if their task was not daunting enough already, Thursday's hosts will be without top scorer Luka Jovic, who serves a one-game suspension after receiving his third yellow card of the competition last time out.
Thanks to an eighth-place La Liga finish in 2024-25, Rayo Vallecano returned to the continental stage after a 25-year absence, having last appeared in the UEFA Cup at the start of the 2000s.
Inigo Perez's men finished level on points with AEK in the league phase and narrowly scraped past Samsunspor in the round of 16, claiming a 3-2 aggregate triumph despite losing the second leg 1-0.
Currently sitting just three points above the drop zone in La Liga, Los Franjirrojos' primary focus between now and May is survival, but the opportunity to claim European silverware is surely too good to pass up.
Vallecano's 11-game streak of conceding no more than one goal was recently ended by Mallorca, who inflicted a 3-0 defeat on Sunday. Thursday's visitors will know they cannot afford a repeat of such defensive lapses in Athens.
AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano form guide & betting tips
| AEK Athens | vs | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| D-L-W-W-L | Form | L-L-W-W-L |
| 6 | Goals For | 4 |
| 7 | Goals Against | 5 |
| W-W-W-L-L | Conference League Form | W-W-W-L-W |
Whispers predicts: AEK Athens 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
With a three-goal deficit to overturn and home advantage on their side, AEK Athens are expected to take control of proceedings. Their strong home form suggests another victory could be on the cards, priced at 2.05.
Having failed to score in each of their last two away matches, Rayo have struggled for goals on the road—music to the ears of AEK, who have kept three clean sheets in their last four home games. As a result, BTTS - No appeals at 2.10.
With Jovic suspended, Barnabas Varga is set to take on a prominent role. The 31-year-old is AEK's second top scorer this season, and two of his six goals came in his last start without his Serbian strike partner. Backing Varga to score anytime at 2.37 could offer good value.
> 1x2 - AEK Athens to win at 2.05 | Likelihood: Probable
> BTTS - No at 2.10 | Likelihood: Probable
> Anytime Goalscorer - Barnabas Varga at 2.37 | Likelihood: Probable