We know in the first round that No. 1 and No. 2 seeds almost never lose in the NCAA Tournament. That’s why some of the most interesting games are between more evenly matched seeds like No. 8 vs. No. 9, and we also know the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups tend to produce upsets each year.
Mar. 20th – 4:05 pm | No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 VCU Rams (+2.5)
The BYU Cougars are just a 2.5-point favorite against the VCU Rams when the teams meet this Thursday afternoon in Denver, Colorado. The Cougars have lost in the first round in their last three NCAA Tournament appearances, including last year’s tournament when they lost 71-67 as a No. 6 seed to the No. 11 seed Duquesne.
Could history repeat itself with BYU losing to a No. 11 seed? It sure could. The Cougars have a spotty defense, while the Rams from VCU boast one of the best defenses in the nation, which should give them a fighting chance in this one with solid guard play. The Rams also come in hot with a 12-1 record in the last 13 games, winning the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Mar. 20th – 7:10 pm | No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (+4.5)
On Thursday evening in Rhode Island, the Kansas Jayhawks (21-12) will face the Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13) as the Razorbacks represent one of a record 14 SEC teams to qualify for the NCAA Tournament this year. The previous record was 11 teams by the Big East in 2011.
Kansas hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament since 1989, but its 12 losses this year are the most the school’s had since that 1988-89 season when they were 19-12. This has coach Bill Self, a two-time national champion, under some of the hottest water of his long career in Kansas.
A first-round elimination would be a tough look, but the Jayhawks are only a 4.5-point favorite here. Arkansas also has a great coach in John Calipari, so this is arguably the premiere coaching matchup of the first round.
Mar. 21st – 12:15 pm | No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears (+1.5)
Kicking off Friday’s action in the afternoon is the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) and Baylor Bears (19-14). The Bulldogs are just a 1.5-point favorite in what could be one of the tightest games of the first round.
The Bulldogs are battle-tested, having placed in that deep SEC this year. Their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the nation. They have a formidable offense led by Josh Hubbard (18.7 points per game), but defense is their Achilles’ heel. Mississippi State is 0-10 when allowing at least 85 points this season.
Baylor from the Big 12 is easily the best non-SEC opponent the Bulldogs will have faced this season. Baylor actually faced the No. 9 toughest schedule this season, and the Bears have been a tough out for their opponents. In their last four losses, Baylor was within four points or fewer. Over the weekend, they lost 76-74 to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament.
Mar. 21st – 2:00 pm | No. 5 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams (-2.5)
If you are looking for one of those No. 12 seeds to upset a No. 5 seed this week, this might be the game in Seattle this Friday afternoon when the Memphis Tigers (29-5) take on the Colorado State Rams (25-9). The Tigers are just a 1.5-point favorite.
Memphis plays in the AAC, which isn’t the deepest conference, so its strength of schedule ranks just 86th in the nation. But they are 19-1 when they score at least 80 points and have a solid offensive team.
If Colorado State has a shot, it will be with guard play, led by leading scorer Nique Clifford (19.0 points per game). The Rams shoot .366 from 3-point territory, so good guard play and 3-point shooting are often keys to first-round upsets in the NCAA tournament. The Rams also play decent defense, ranked 45th in points allowed per game (67.1).
