Stoke vs Stevenage prediction, Odds and Betting Tips 29/01/2023

Stoke
29/01/23 - 14:00

Finished

3

-

1

Stevenage

Stoke - Stevenage

England FA Cup - bet365 Stadium

* Betting odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Stoke welcome giant killing Stevenage to the Bet365 Stadium on Sunday, January 29th for a FA Cup encounter.

Stoke vs Stevenage: Our top betting predictions

Stevenage won the hearts of plenty of neutrals in the last round as they knocked out Premier League Aston Villa. A win here wouldn't be on that level but it would definitely go down as a shock. Can they land yet another knockout blow? Find out with our Stoke vs Stevenage match preview with free tips, predictions and odds mentioned along the way.

Stoke will win

We kick off our predictions by backing Stoke to win this game. People will be quick to point out that Stevenage haven't lost many games of late and that they eliminated Aston Villa, who play a league higher than Stoke, last time round but that doesn't mean much in these games. In fact, because they beat Villa in the last round they'll be less likely to win this game in our opinion. Stoke won't take this game lightly knowing what could happen. Stevenage have also got to play the near-perfect game again. We just don't see it against a Stoke side boosted by a couple of new signings and off the back of a 4-0 win.

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Goals will flow

Our next prediction for this game comes from the total goals market and we think this game could feature a few. As such, we've predicted over 2.5 goals. Stoke have broken that threshold in each of their last three games whilst Stevenage have gone north of 2.5 goals in three of their last five games with an average of 2.6 goals per match. On top of that, these two have faced off before. The last meeting between Stoke and Stevenage saw a total of four goals.

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Here are the key stats & form guide for Stoke vs Stevenage

Head to Head

23/08/16

England EFL Cup EFL Cup

Stevenage

Stevenage

Stoke

Stoke

0

4

Last Five - Stoke

24/02/24

England Championship CHA

Cardiff

Cardiff

Stoke

Stoke

2

1

L

17/02/24

England Championship CHA

Coventry

Coventry

Stoke

Stoke

1

0

L

14/02/24

England Championship CHA

QPR

QPR

Stoke

Stoke

0

1

W

10/02/24

England Championship CHA

Blackburn

Blackburn

Stoke

Stoke

3

1

L

03/02/24

England Championship CHA

Leicester

Leicester

Stoke

Stoke

5

0

L

Last Five - Stevenage

27/02/24

England League 1 League 1

Cambridge Utd

Cambridge Utd

Stevenage

Stevenage

0

1

W

24/02/24

England League 1 League 1

Wycombe

Wycombe

Stevenage

Stevenage

0

1

W

17/02/24

England League 1 League 1

Derby

Derby

Stevenage

Stevenage

1

0

L

13/02/24

England League 1 League 1

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers

Stevenage

Stevenage

3

2

L

10/02/24

England League 1 League 1

Port Vale

Port Vale

Stevenage

Stevenage

2

2

D

So, that gives you some insight to how the different bookmakers see the action unfolding. How though do the bookies odds translate into probabilities ahead of this game and how might that impact your view of our predictions? Let's find out.

Stoke odds: 8/11 (1.73) – 58%

Draw odds: 13/5 (3.60) – 28%

Stevenage odds: 4/1 (5.00) – 20%

As you might expect, Stoke are favourites to win this game whilst odds of 4/1 (5.00) don't exactly suggest the bookies fancy Stevenage's chances of a repeat of their third round success. The total goals market is an intriguing one as well. The bookies fancy this to be a low scorer with under 2.5 being priced odds on. We disagree and think that puts real value on the ‘over' option.

Check out the predicted lineups ahead of Stoke vs Stevenage

Stoke

Stoke might be in a relegation battle in the Championship but after hitting Reading 4-0 last time out, they'll see this very winnable tie as a potential route to some momentum. A good league win, a cup run and new signings could be a great boost for their season. The new faces – Matija Sarkic and Bersant Celina – could start here too.

Predicted lineup – Sarkic, Wilmot, Jagielka, Fox, Laurent, Smallbone, Baker, Celina, Brown, Campbell, Gayle

Stevenage

Stevenage have been in a really good place lately and proved just how good they can be on their day in the last round as the deservedly saw off Aston Villa. This game will be another big test but the away side will be confident. A side unchanged from that Villa game isn't remotely impossible.

Predicted lineup – Ashby-Hammond, Clark, Piergianni, Vancooten, Sweeney, Wildin, Roberts, Reeves, Taylor, Norris, Rose

Starting Lineups

*Starting lineups are usually announced one hour prior to kick off.

Player to watch

Stoke confirmed the loan signing of Bersant Celina on Thursday and, as mentioned above, he could come into the starting XI here for his debut. The Kosovan international came through Man City's academy and has played plenty of football in England before spending the last six months in Turkey. Goals and assists don't necessarily rain down for him and he does have ‘off days' but he is capable of things that 99% of footballers can't do and that means you cannot take your eyes off him.

A quickfire FAQ on Stoke vs Stevenage

Stoke vs Stevenage prediction

  • Where is the match being played? – The Bet365 Stadium
  • Who do the bookmakers have as favourites? – Stoke
  • What time does the match kick off?  14:00 GMT

Avatar of Ash Munson
Ash Munson

Ash an experienced sports writer who has an extensive background in data analytics. Here, he combines those skills to provide you, the reader, with engaging and well researched content. Oh, and Ash is an Ipswich Town fan!