Stevenage vs Derby prediction, odds & betting tips 28/10/2023

Stevenage
28/10/23 - 15:00

Finished

3

-

1

Derby

Stevenage - Derby

England League 1 - The Lamex Stadium

Stevenage and Derby lock horns in a League One clash on Saturday, October 28th. The teams are separated by just 2 points in the standings and the contest promises to be close. To find out more about this game and other predictions check our dedicated League One betting tips page.

Stevenage vs Derby predictions and betting tips

If you need help finding the right bet for Stevenage vs Derby, check our top betting picks for this game, as well as our latest team news and predicted lineups, along with our other best football tips for today.

Under 9.5 Corners

  • In 3 of Stevenage’s last 5 home games, there were no more than 8 corners. 
  • Derby saw 4 of their last 5 away matches produce fewer than 10 corners. 
  • Also, 6 of Derby’s last 9 league games stayed under 9.5 corners. 

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Stevenage saw 4 of their last 5 games stay under 2.5 goals. 
  • This also happened in 3 of Derby’s last 4 matches. 
  • In 7 of Stevenage’s last 9 home games, there were no more than 2 goals scored. 

Top betting odds and key stats for Stevenage vs Derby

Check the best Stevenage vs Derby odds and useful stats here, on our website:

Last Five - Stevenage

03/05/25

England League 1 League 1

Bolton

Bolton

Stevenage

Stevenage

1

1

D

27/04/25

England League 1 League 1

Rotherham

Rotherham

Stevenage

Stevenage

1

1

D

24/04/25

England League 1 League 1

Birmingham

Birmingham

Stevenage

Stevenage

1

0

L

21/04/25

England League 1 League 1

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers

Stevenage

Stevenage

0

1

W

18/04/25

England League 1 League 1

Blackpool

Blackpool

Stevenage

Stevenage

3

1

L

Last Five - Derby

03/05/25

England Championship CHA

Stoke

Stoke

Derby

Derby

0

0

D

26/04/25

England Championship CHA

Hull

Hull

Derby

Derby

0

1

W

21/04/25

England Championship CHA

West Brom

West Brom

Derby

Derby

1

3

W

18/04/25

England Championship CHA

Luton

Luton

Derby

Derby

1

0

L

12/04/25

England Championship CHA

Portsmouth

Portsmouth

Derby

Derby

2

2

D

Now, let's take a better look at the best markets and odds we found for this duel:

Stevenage odds: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1% Probability

Draw odds: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4% Probability

Derby odds: 15/8 (2.88) – 34.8% Probability

The bookies don’t have expected winners of this game with the win probability for both teams pretty similar – 38.1% for Stevenage and 34.8% for Derby. In other markets, Derby to Score First comes at 47.70% probability. 

Stevenage – Derby preview: latest form, news, and potential lineups

Read all of the latest injury updates and team news for this duel, including our predicted Stevenage vs Derby lineups.

Stevenage

The Stags enjoyed a very strong start to the season on their return to League One after promotion. Stevenage’s form suffered a sharp decline after the first international break in September though. 

A single win in the least six rounds saw Stevenage slide out of the top 3 and now they are even out of the top 6. On Tuesday a decent away display vs Bristol Rovers nearly brought a win. In the end, the passive final 15 minutes resulted in a late goal being conceded and this saw Stevenage having to settle for a 1-1 draw. 

Centre-back Sweeney remains a serious doubt after missing the last 3 games due to an unspecified injury. Another defender Vancooten picked up a knock on Tuesday but hopes are he will recover on time. 

Predicted Lineup: 

Ashby-Hammond (GK), Burns, Vancooten, Piergianni, Freeman, Forster-Caskey, Thompson, Butler, Roberts, Pressley & Reid

Derby

Derby offered a confident display on Tuesday night against strugglers Exeter and the Rams ran away with a 2-0 win from this match. It was a dominant showing from Warne’s men and for once they never lowered their guard. 

Conceding cheap goals and losing focus for 10-15-minute periods in matches has hurt Derby so far this season. They secured back-to-back wins only once so far. That was way back in early August. 

Several backup players are missing injured but both wide midfielders Elder and Ward could be back on the bench as they have trained for a full week now without restrictions. 

Predicted Lineup: 

Wildsmith (GK), Cashin, Nelson, Forsyth, Mendez-Laing, Smith, Bird, Hourihane, Barkuizen, Waghorn & Collins 

​Starting Lineups

The teams usually announce their starting lineups one hour before the start of the game.

​Player to Watch: Jamie Reid

Stevenage's star striker Jamie Reid already scored 9 goals in 14 league appearances. Reid scored just 10 goals in 45 starts last season in League Two so he is doing way better than expected. 

The Stags recognise that and in the last 5 rounds, 74% of all crosses had targeted exactly Reid. With so many balls coming his way Reid should continue scoring.