UCL Semi Final: PSG vs RB Leipzig – best odds, tips, and predictions
This semi-final in the 2020 Champions League shows a lot of promise because we will have two very tough teams battling it out. The match will be played at a neutral venue in Portugal, and to make things worse for both sides, there will be no fans in the stands.
Additionally, the tie will take place in just one leg. This often means that a single-game strategy may pay off nicely to the underdog. Being good for one game is absolutely possible primarily if you practice the right plays and how to neutralize the opponent's defense.
PSG’s performance in the Champions League this year
Speaking of the underdog in this year’s UEFA Champions League, Atalanta got within minutes of staving off PSG from the tournament. The French club looked like a shell of itself without Mbappe on the field and had to pull off a miracle comeback to advance to the next round.
It has to be said that bookies obviously took huge losses because PSG came back from 1:0 to win 1:2 and because both teams scored. PSG's very late scores prevented Atalanta from making history by advancing to the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in the club's history.
But wait, PSG also made history because that’s the first time they will play in the UCL semis too. So can we trust them? Bookmakers say “yes” favouring them over Leipzig and giving them odds of ¾ to win the match outright.
RB Leipzig and their strong season in the UCL
So, in their last 3 Champions league matches, Leipzig allowed only one goal, and it came from a penalty in their previous game. We are all so busy being impressed by Bayern's crusade this season that we somehow overlook the Timo Wernerless Leipzig this summer. Yep, they lost their best striker to Chelsea and still managed to beat Tottenham in the 1/8 finals without conceding a goal. Additionally, Leipzig outlasted the tough Atletico Madrid team and moved to the semi-finals with a late score. And to be fair, the winning goal was sort of a lucky one with the deflection and all.
Will PSG win and advance past RB Leipzig?
Both teams are in uncharted waters now. The French club expects superstar Kylian Mbappe to return to action and bring the much-needed energy to the attack. We saw incredible character by both PSG and RBL in the quarterfinals, where both teams literally won with a couple of minutes left in their matches. Is that a good sign? Not necessarily.
Sometimes a late winner will elevate a team, but many clubs, such as a miracle, are sort of the last hurrah in an organization's season. The scary thing for Leipzig is that Mbappe will likely be back, and we can safely say that this time PSG will look to score early. Additionally, PSG manager Thomas Tuchel has experience against Leipzig having faced them in Germany in the past.
Our pick is a fairly bold one where we expect the first half to go 0-0. So you can play the “over/under 1st half” market as “under 0.5” or BTTS in the 1st half as “no.” This is because both teams will have to play on a relatively short week, and since this is just a single leg tie, they may come out a little bit conservative.
In the second half, the depth of PSG will likely show, and they should go on to win the match. Feel free to bet “PSG to win the second half” or “PSG to qualify.”
If you feel like it, go for the “BTTS – no” selection. Leipzig may find themselves overwhelmed at last and may struggle to produce in the match.
Additional markets to bet on in the match PSG – RB Leipzig
Here are the other popular markets you can look at.
PSG are heavily favoured here, getting ¾ to win outright. We don’t love the odds, and we believe the price isn't good enough for such a tough match. What you can do is look to bet it in the second half. After the 1st 45 minutes, the odds for PSG will likely climb, especially if the first half ends in a draw.
With Leipzig, you get 11/4, which is a great price to get, but can the Germans pull it off? We aren’t sold on them because we think this last tie really drained them. Not to mention that PSG had one day of rest more.
BTTS – Both teams to score
Going with the “yes” selection here is not going to net you an impressive profit. If you think PSG can win with a clean sheet, then go for the “no” selection. We lean towards that although this is definitely not our top pick
It is about time PSG showed their worth and advanced to a Champions League final. This expensive organization feels all the pressure and expectations, and they know that in an odd UCL season, they got a chance to make history.
Leipzig tends to score goals, but their attack may finally come to a halt. Bet the “PSG to qualify” market.
Total goals scored
Here we lean towards the “under 2.5” selection, and we understand that when you see such teams battle it out, it looks unlikely to see few goals. Well, we think PSG will advance, we never said it has to happen in regular time. Even if it does, we expect a goalless 1st half and maybe a late score in the 2nd. Don’t be surprised if we see 0-0 at FT and an extra-time thriller.
PSG – RB Leipzig: Frequently asked questions
Where is the match taking place?
Estadio da Luz – Lisbon
What time does the match start?
21:00 CET on 18.08.2020
Is the Champions League semi-final played in two legs?
Generally, yes, but not in 2020. It will be a single-leg tie.
Who will win the match PSG – RB Leipzig?
Our money is on “PSG – to qualify” although this may not happen in the first 90 minutes.
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