Poland vs Netherlands prediction, odds & betting tips – 16/06/2024

Poland vs Netherlands prediction, odds & betting tips – 16/06/2024
The Netherlands hammer Iceland - Photo by Icon Sport

Here are our Euro 2024 predictions for the opening game in Group D between Poland and the Netherlands.

Ronaldo Koeman's side head to Germany in great goalscoring form but the Netherlands have historically failed to deliver on the big stage with better squads than this.

Poland will be hoping to have their captain and talisman Robert Lewandowski in the starting lineup on Sunday after the veteran striker limped off during the first half of the friendly win against Turkey.

Poland vs Netherlands prediction: Close game expected

Key Stats

  • The Netherlands have won six of their last seven head-to-heads with Poland.
  • Poland haven't conceded more than one goal in any of their last seven matches.
  • The Dutch have kept five clean sheets in their last six fixtures.
  • Memphis Depay has scored 45 goals in 92 caps for the Netherlands and found the back of the net during the 4-0 win over Iceland.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Odds stacked against Poland

  • HOME: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%
  • DRAW: 33/10 (4.30) – 23.3%
  • AWAY: 4/7 (1.57) – 63.6%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The Netherlands are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 63.6%, and we tend to agree with the bookmakers on this one.

You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.

Last five H2Hs: The Netherlands dominate

With four wins and a draw from their last five meetings with Poland, the Netherlands have really enjoyed playing against the Eastern Europeans during the last decade.

UEFA Nations League 22/09/22

Poland

Poland

0
Netherlands

Netherlands

2

UEFA Nations League 11/06/22

Netherlands

Netherlands

2
Poland

Poland

2

UEFA Nations League 18/11/20

Poland

Poland

1
Netherlands

Netherlands

2

UEFA Nations League 04/09/20

Netherlands

Netherlands

1
Poland

Poland

0

International Match 01/06/16

Poland

Poland

1
Netherlands

Netherlands

2

Poland preview: Have to provide the right service for Lewandowski

Poland have put some impressive form together ahead of Euro 2024 but during their final friendly, a 2-1 win against Turkey, Robert Lewandowski picked up a knock and had to be substituted during the opening 45 minutes.

If they can get the Barcelona star back into the starting lineup for the Netherlands game, which does appear to be the case, then it's all about providing the goal-machine with decent service which hasn't always been achieved at major tournaments.

Predicted lineup: Szczęsny (GK), Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior, Zieliński, Frankowski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski, Lewandowski & Piątek

Euro 2024 21/06/24

L

Austria

Austria

3

Poland

Poland

1

Euro 2024 16/06/24

L

Netherlands

Netherlands

2

Poland

Poland

1

International Match 10/06/24

W

Turkey

Turkey

1

Poland

Poland

2

International Match 07/06/24

W

Ukraine

Ukraine

1

Poland

Poland

3

Euro 2024 Qualifying 26/03/24

W

Wales

Wales

0 (4)

Poland

Poland

0 (5)

Netherlands preview: Depay set to shine in Germany?

The Netherlands are in great form right now, scoring goals for fun and keeping plenty of clean sheets so perhaps it's a good thing that nobody has the Dutch down as the favourite to win in Germany.

With the pressure off, somewhat at least, Ronaldo Koeman's side might just be able to go out there and play their natural game. This squad certainly has the goals in it to go all the way and the back four have only conceded two goals in their last six outings, so the recipe for success is evident.

Predicted lineup: Verbruggen (GK), de Vrij, Aké, van Dijk, Dumfries, Schouten, Veerman, Reijnders, Simons, Depay & Gakpo 

Euro 2024 21/06/24

D

France

France

0

Netherlands

Netherlands

0

Euro 2024 16/06/24

W

Poland

Poland

1

Netherlands

Netherlands

2

International Match 10/06/24

W

Iceland

Iceland

0

Netherlands

Netherlands

4

International Match 06/06/24

W

Canada

Canada

0

Netherlands

Netherlands

4

International Match 26/03/24

L

Germany

Germany

2

Netherlands

Netherlands

1

Player to watch – Memphis Depay

Memphis Depay's goal against Iceland last time out took the Atletico Madrid attacker on to 45 goals for his country.

The former Man Utd and Barcelona man is now only five goals away from equaling Robin van Persie's record for the Netherlands (50), so there is a chance that Depay could become his country's top goalscorer at Euro 2024 should the team get through to the latter stages.

Memphis Depay player to watch
Memphis Depay celebrating a goal against Canada – Photo by Icon Sport

Whilst goals are the main aspect of his game, Depay is a complete forward and has the ability to create chances for his teammates. The Atletico Madrid forward is joint-top with Codey Gakpo on two assists in the Netherlands' friendlies in 2024 and his ability to create goals as well as score them has been a real asset to Ronaldo Koeman.

Depay provides a goal threat and a creative element

We're certainly going to have our eyes on Depay this weekend as we have high hopes for the 30-year-old and just how far he can guide this in-form Netherlands side.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Poland

Netherlands


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things