Mexico vs Poland Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips 22/11/2022

*All odds are correct at the time of writing but are also subject to change, so double-check them. 

The Mexico vs Poland duel is one of the four games scheduled for Tuesday, November 22nd at the World Cup in Qatar. So, let's take a closer look at the match and some of our free betting tips for it.

Mexico vs Poland World Cup 2022 Prediction

Comparing both teams’ histories at the World Cup, Mexico has the advantage because they have qualified for every World Cup since 1994, while Poland only managed to qualify three times since then. Mexico also advanced past the group stage on multiple occasions, and despite never beating Poland before, they are in a good place. 

 

Match Result – Draw

Despite Mexico's positive history in the World Cup throughout the years, we think that the upcoming game will most likely end with a tie. Both teams’ recent form is similar in the recent friendly fixtures they played, and Mexico has never beaten Poland before. While the European team's World Cup history isn't as rich, a draw is a likely outcome considering the game would only be the start for both teams in the tournament. 

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Poland to Score in 1st Half

Robert Lewandowski is the player everyone expects will score during the World Cup considering he received the “Ballon d'Or Striker of the Year” award in 2021, the “European Golden Shoe” two seasons in a row, and was declared the “Best FIFA Men's Player” for the last two years. He will definitely attempt to find his way through Mexico's goalkeeper, but the question is if he will he do it in the first half, and we think that he will. If he doesn't score against Mexico, who will? Lewandowski scored in the first half in five of the last six games that he scored one or more goals in, so we are expecting that again.

 

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Latest Odds & Stats for the World Cup Match 

Here are the latest statistics for both teams before their upcoming game in the World Cup Group Stage.

Mexico
22/11/22 - 16:00

Finished

0

-

0

Poland

Mexico - Poland

World Cup 2022

head to head history Mexico vs Poland

Mexico vs Poland

flash Head to Head

13/11/17
International
Poland
0 - 1
Mexico
last matches of Mexico

Mexico

Last 5

22/11/22
World
Mexico
0 - 0
Poland
16/11/22
International
Mexico
1 - 2
Sweden
09/11/22
International
Mexico
4 - 0
Iraq
28/09/22
International
Mexico
2 - 3
Colombia
last matches of Poland

Poland

Last 5

22/11/22
World
Mexico
0 - 0
Poland
16/11/22
International
Poland
1 - 0
Chile
25/09/22
NAL
Wales
0 - 1
Poland
22/09/22
NAL
Poland
0 - 2
Netherlands
14/06/22
NAL
Poland
0 - 1
Belgium

It is evident from the odds that the bookies don't see any one team as a favourite to win this match. So, let's take a look at the average odds across multiple websites for this game:

  • Mexico odds: 33/19 (2.74)
  • Draw odds: 21/10 (3.10)
  • Poland odds: 21/10 (3.10)

According to these odds, Mexico has a probability of 36.5% to win the game, while the probability of Poland winning and the match ending in a draw are both 32.3%. Those are obviously very close odds on each outcome, so it might be tough to find the right bet here.

Meanwhile, the bookies expect the match to be a low-scoring affair. The odds on under 2.5 total goals are, on average, 11/18 (1.61), which implies a probability of 62.1%. On the other end, the probability of this game going over 2.5 total goals is 38.7%, which means that the average odds are 19/12 (2.58).

If you're thinking of betting on higher odds, you may want to try betting on the correct score. The most likely correct scores according to the odds, are 0-0, 1-1, and 1-0 to Mexico.

Previous Meetings

Mexico and Poland met only once in recent years, which was back in 2017. It was a friendly match and Mexico ended up taking the win by a single goal, scored by Wolverhampton's Raul Jimenez, who will once again lead the front line for Mexicans.

Is Mexico Going to Surprise Us with Their First Win Against Poland?

This is certainly one of the closest matchups in the first round of World Cup. So, let's take a closer look at both teams ahead of their duel:

Poland 

A couple of Premier League regulars haven't made the squad for Qatar. Jakub Moder and Mateusz Klich are both experienced internationals but will miss the chance to represent their country at the World Cup along with Jacek Góralski, Karol Linetty, Adam Buksa, Tomasz Kędziora and Arkadiusz Reca. Robert Lewandowski will lead Poland out at the World Cup once again and the 34-year-old Barcelona striker will be confident of adding to his 76 international goals in Qatar.

Poland Predicted Lineup:

Szczesny – Bednarek, Glik, Kiwior – Bereszynski, Krychowiak, Zielinski, Szymanski, Zalewski – Swiderski, Lewandowski

Mexico 

The big misses for Mexico in Qatar will be Jesús Corona of Sevilla, Rodolfo Pizarro of Monterrey and Luis Rodríguez of UANL. Most of the regular faces have made the trip to Qatar though with Hirving Lozano and Raúl Jiménez set to lead the line up-front in what is likely to be the Wolves striker's last World Cup. Andrés Guardado captains the side once again and will make his 178 international appearances against Poland, while in defence Héctor Moreno is likely to start with Guillermo Ochoa between the sticks.

Mexico Predicted Lineup:

Ochoa – Sanchez, Montes, Moreno, Gallardo – Alvarez, Herrera, Guardado – Lozano, Martin, Vega

Questions & Answers for Mexico vs Poland 

Mexico Poland Prediction

  • Where can I watch the match live? – BBC One, BBC iPlayer, and the BBC Sports website. 
  • Where is the game going to be played? – Stadium 974, Doha. 
  • What is the starting time of the fixture? – 16:00 UK, 17:00 CET.