Mexico and Ecuador will meet in the final round of Copa America 2024 on Monday, 01 July.
With both teams hoping to get to the next stage, who will emerge victorious from this match? Learn that and more from our Mexico vs Ecuador prediction and preview right here.
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Mexico vs Ecuador prediction: Both teams to score in a close duel
Key stats
- We saw both teams score in the last four Ecuador's matches in all competitions.
- Both teams enter this match with three points from the first two rounds.
- The last duel between Mexico and Ecuador has ended without a winner.
Correct score prediction: Mexico 1-1 Ecuador
Given that both teams enter this duel in similar forms and that the last time they met the match ended in a draw, we can see the same outcome on Monday.
Pre-game odds and win probability: No clear favourites here
- HOME: 7/4 (2.75) – 36.40%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.30%
- AWAY: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.10%
It's clear from these Mexico vs Ecuador odds that the bookies don't have a favourite, although Ecuador are seen as the expected winners by the slimmest of margins.
This makes sense given that both teams enter this game with one win in the first two Copa America rounds and that this duel will decide who gets to the next stage.
In any case, if you liked our predictions for this game, remember to look at our top betting tips for today as well.
Last five H2Hs: A tied matchup in recent years
Each team has won twice in the last five H2H meetings between Mexico and Ecuador, along with one draw. However, things are a bit different when we look at their overall H2H record: 15-6-4 in favour of Mexico
International Match 06/06/22
Mexico
Ecuador
International Match 28/10/21
Mexico
Ecuador
International Match 10/06/19
Mexico
Ecuador
Copa America 19/06/15
Mexico
Ecuador
International Match 29/03/15
Mexico
Ecuador
Mexico preview: Can they avoid early exit?
While this Mexico's Copa America squad had high ambitions coming into the tournament and while things have gone well after a narrow win over Jamaica in the first round of the group stages, their loss to Venezuela in the last round puts Mexico in a precarious situation. Ahead of the last matchday, Mexico need to beat Ecuador or they will the competitions earlier that they expected.
On top of that, the team's captain Edson Alvarez already missed one match and is bound to miss this game as well.
Predicted lineup: Gonzalez (GK), Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Arteaga, Romo, Chavez, Vega, Pineda, Quinones & Gimenez
CONCACAF Nations League 24/03/25
W
Panama
1
Mexico
2
CONCACAF Nations League 21/03/25
W
Canada
0
Mexico
2
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 22/01/25
L
River Plate
2
Mexico
0
CONCACAF Nations League 20/11/24
W
Honduras
0
Mexico
4
CONCACAF Nations League 16/11/24
L
Honduras
2
Mexico
0
Ecuador preview: One draw away from the next stage
After their loss in the first round to Venezuela, Ecuador turned things around with a confident win over Jamaica in the second round and thanks to a better goal difference than Mexico, they only need a draw in the last round to get out of the group.
On top of that, Ecuador can have Enner Valencia back after he had to sit out the last match through suspension.
Predicted lineup: Dominguez (GK), Preciado, Torres, Pacho, Hincapie, Franco, Caicedo, Yeboah, Paez, Sarmiento & Valencia
South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
D
Chile
0
Ecuador
0
South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25
W
Venezuela
1
Ecuador
2
South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24
W
Colombia
0
Ecuador
1
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/11/24
W
Bolivia
0
Ecuador
4
South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24
D
Uruguay
0
Ecuador
0
Player to watch: Santiago Gimenez
One of the reasons for Mexico's struggles at Copa America so far has been the lack of goals and the man to rectify this is Gimenez, who is Mexico's top striker at the moment.
Gimenez has been in great form this season
With 23 goals in the Dutch Eredivisie for Feyenoord this season, Gimenez came into Copa America with a lot of confidence, but he failed to translate his club form to international football. Will that change against Ecuador, in Mexico's crucial game of the group stages?