Man City total points betting: Why 86 may be the magic number for Pep’s men

Here, we look at Man City total points betting, after several seasons over the past decade that have seen Pep Guardiola’s men romp to the Premier League (PL) trophy.

From mere goal difference via a 94th-minute Sergio Aguero winner in 2012, to the 100-point cruise of 2017/18, City have experienced a wide range of title-winning processes. Right now, they lead the league by a single point after a 4-4 draw for the ages at Stamford Bridge, and would extend that to four with a win over Liverpool on 25th November.

So just how easily could City win the title this time around, and what will be required of them?

Man City total points betting: Why 86 may be the magic number for Pep's men
City and Chelsea played out an incredible 4-4 draw before the November international break, in a game that indicated City will not have it all their own way this time around. (Photo by Icon sport)

Mid-season period usually a ‘Guardiola speciality’

Once again, City are top of the PL table, and clasping onto top spot will be a key objective for Guardiola’s side, who are aiming to make history as the first-ever team to win four consecutive top-flight titles. They are already clear and obvious favourites to win it again, but decoding the margin of their expected success is less straightforward.

City have recovered from back-to-back losses before the October international break to move top of the table. Defeats at Wolves (2-1) and Arsenal (1-0) saw Guardiola’s side slip to third place, but a four-match unbeaten run over the past month has lifted City back to the summit.

That’s an encouraging return to take forward, especially as the Citizens have often been able to produce mid-season spells of superiority. Granted, last season was something of an anomaly there, with Arsenal leading by eight points at Christmas, but the run they needed came nonetheless.

Man City total points betting
Photo by Icon sport

How many points will City need to win the title?

The sight of a team finishing on 90+ points and not holding a PL trophy aloft was once considered unthinkable. Yet, it has happened to Liverpool twice in the past four years, with 2019 being a particularly painful episode from a red viewpoint. A haul of 97 points was still not enough for the Reds to end what was then a 29-year wait for ultimate domestic glory.

And despite the ever-prevailing signs of another straight Klopp v Guardiola scrap, there are still doubts over Liverpool’s class of 2023. After all, the team of 2019 would have brushed Luton aside back on Bonfire Night, instead of relying on a late equaliser to avoid a humiliating defeat. Then again there is – unlike 2018/19 and 2021/22 – also a third way this time around, with Arsenal still up there and fighting.

Overall – assuming an inferior goal difference to the second-placed team of each season – an average of 86.4 points has been required to lift the title over the previous five years. Such is the proximity of the top five, which is currently completed by Spurs and Aston Villa, something close to that tally will be needed once again, especially as all of them seem to be nearly invincible on home turf.

Man City total points betting: Why 86 may be the magic number for Pep's men
Despite falling so short of the title in 2022/23, Liverpool still gave City a scare along the way. (Photo by Icon sport)

Man City total points betting – Our prediction

This has the potential to ‘age well’ – sarcastically or otherwise – after City’s looming clash with Liverpool. But it is hard to see City winning the title by a double-figure margin. Nonetheless, City’s strength in depth still outweighs that of their main title rivals, and at their current rate, they are on course for 88-89 points.

It’s a rarity that 90 isn’t sufficient, though anything less than the mid-80s for Liverpool or Arsenal would be a disappointment for their respective fanbases. For that reason, we are saying:

  1. City – 88 points
  2. Liverpool – 85 points
  3. Arsenal – 78 points


There’s a fight ahead, no doubt about it, but the mid-season period approaching will tell us much. It’s something City have negotiated well most of the time, and in particular, the 12-match winning league run between November and February in the 2021/22 season shows how City are almost unbeatable when they hit their groove.

During that title win, said four-month winning period proved vital in giving City the trophy by a one-point margin, after their incredible winning comeback from 2-0 down against Aston Villa. If City can cope with that sort of pressure, then having their fate in their own hands, with months rather than minutes to spare, should play to their advantage nine times out of ten.

See also: More interested in the wrong end of the PL table? Check out the latest Premier League relegation battle news.

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Alex Waite

Alex is a freelance sports writer with experience writing digital news, blogs, features, exlcusive interviews and SEO. He has a keen interest and knowledge of UK and European football, ATP and WTA tennis, cricket and boxing.