UCL Semi-Final: Lyon vs Bayern – best odds, tips, and predictions
Estadio Jose Alvalade will host yet another Champions League match this season as part of the COVID-19 measures that UEFA took. The neutral venue will also have empty stands as Lyon, and Bayern Munich decide who will represent their side of the draw at the final. The case can be made for each side, although we have to be realistic about it and likely pick Bayern not only to advance to the last game of the competition but also to lift the trophy. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and start by looking at this tie first.
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How has Lyon played in the Champions League thus far?
It has to be said that Lyon is somewhat in the role of an overachiever now, especially after beating Manchester City in the quarterfinal. Looking at the stats of their previous match, the result is misleading in a way. A score of 3-1 suggests that the opponent has been routed, but it wasn’t the case. Manchester City outplayed Lyon and still managed to concede 3 goals on their way out of the tournament.
It has to be noted, though, that Lyon scored 3 times on only 6 shots on goal. They also had possession for only 33% of the time and had literally 0 attempts off goal. Some pundits may hail this as a “smart and strategic win,” but we highly doubt such tactics will fly against Bayern in the semi-final.
Other than that, in the Champions League this season, Lyon scores an average of 2.48 goals per game while conceding 1.6. It looks like they will be able to score against the Germans, but will they be able to hold them off?
Bayern Munich's crusade in the Champions League continues.
Wow, was that a statement win against Barcelona in the quarterfinals or what? The 8-2 victory was one of the worst defeats a quarterfinal team saw in the history of the competition and undoubtedly one of the most disastrous ones in Barcelona's football history.
When it comes to football, we rarely see German teams show mercy, and it looks like it will be the case this year as well. Nothing suggests that Bayern will stop winning now. They haven’t lost a game since December 2019, and when you do that in European competitions too, we can safely say that you are here to stay.
But wait, did you know that Bayern Munich has won every single one of their nine matches in the Champions League this season? They haven’t even had a draw in the competition. This is the overwhelming favourite for the title now that Manchester City is out, and we simply cannot go against them.
Our top tip for the Lyon vs. Bayern Munich semi-final: Bayern to qualify
There is no need to act all smart about the outcome of the match. Betting anything but “Bayern to win” is just silly at this point. This is our top bet, but it will not net you an excellent price as currently, bookies will give you around 1/5 for the “Bayern to win” selection. Looking at the 10/1 that you get for “Lyon to win” is lucrative, but it’s certainly not realistic.
We suggest you look at some other markets if you are looking for better value.
Alternative markets to bet in the Lyon vs. Bayern Munich semi-final.
Here are some of the other betting options you have at your disposal if you do not feel like betting the “match result” market.
BTTS – Both teams to score
This is actually not an outrageous pick. The current price for the “yes” selection is around 3/4, and this is primarily because bookies think Bayern will shut down Lyon. However, as stated above, Lyon scores about 2.5 goals per match, and why wouldn't they score at least once in this competition?
BTTS “yes” (@ 8/11 Ladbrokes)
Exact number of goals
Here’s a market we rarely suggest betting. But our tip here is to go for the “five (5)” selection as it just looks good mathematically. Bayern scores an average of 4.2 goals per match in the UCL this season. We think they will outscore Lyon, and if they do so by 4-1, 3-2, 5-0, you win. And let’s be honest, all of these results that we just listed are very plausible. The price for “five goals to be scored” is currently 5/1. Not bad at all.
Do not go for anything less than 3.5 goals in the match. The prices are meager, and the probability still isn't good enough. The “over 2.5 goals” is currently priced at 1/3, so it is pointless to bet. We already said that our exact number of goals is 5. You can safely bet the “over 4.5 goals” and net a price of 2/1 (which to be fair is still quite low).
Second half totals
This is where it gets interesting as both Lyon and Bayern tend to score more in the second half. If you bet the “over 3.5 goals in the 2nd half,” you will get odds of about 9/2, which is pretty generous, but can both teams produce 4 goals in the last 45 minutes? They probably can. Betting the “over 2.5 goals in the 2nd half” is also a viable wager and one of our main tips for the match as well.
Winning Margin (handicap)
Betting the “Bayern -1” or even “Bayern -2” is a natural continuation of the discussion above. No reason to think that the Germans cannot win by one or more goals difference.
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Frequently asked questions about the Lyon vs. Bayern semi-final.
Where will the match take place?
Again, a neutral venue will host the event – Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon.
What time does the match start?
The start time and date are 16.08 at 21:00 CET.
Who will win the match between Lyon and Bayern Munich?
Everything suggests that Bayern will win by a wide margin and advance to the final.