Euro 2024 group stage draw seeding: Key movers in FIFA’s rankings this month

The Euro 2024 group stage draw seeding will see significant changes from Euro 2020, as we look at how the changes in team's FIFA rankings will affect this year's draw on December 2nd.

Italy are the holders having beaten England in the Euro 2020 final. Foto von Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images – Photo by Icon Sport

Euro 2024 group stage draw seeding – How does it work?

Like Euro 2020, the Euro 2024 group stage draw seeding is determined by the best-ranked first and second-placed teams in their respective qualifying groups. This is largely based on points accumulated among other factors, with Germany an exception as they are automatically placed in Pot 1 as hosts.

The following teams will definitely be placed in these corresponding pots, based on the criteria above:

  • Pot 1 – Germany, Portugal, France, Spain, Belgium, England
  • Pot 2 – Hungary, Turkey, Romania, Denmark, Albania, Austria
  • Pot 3 – Netherlands, Scotland, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic
  • Pot 4 – Italy, Serbia, Switzerland, TBC (x3)

The three play-off winners – which we have projected ahead of Thursday's draw – will fill the remaining spaces in Pot 4.

Interestingly, rhe seeding for the draw is not based on FIFA rankings, so it is interesting to compare teams' rankings to what pot they are drawn in. For instance, 39th-ranked Albania occupy Pot 2, whereas the Netherlands (ranked 7th) are a lower seed in Pot 3.

Yet, it is clear to see who the bookmakers are siding with, based on the current top-10 favourites to lift the trophy.

Euro 2024 outright odds

Changes from Euro 2020

The Euro 2020 group stage draw seeding saw the following teams drawn into these corresponding pots:

  • Pot 1 – Belgium, Italy (hosts), England (hosts), Germany (hosts), Spain (hosts), Ukraine
  • Pot 2 – France, Poland, Switzerland, Croatia, Netherlands (hosts), Russia (hosts)
  • Pot 3 – Portugal, Turkey, Denmark (hosts), Austria, Sweden, Czech Republic
  • Pot 4 – Wales, Finland, Hungary (hosts), Slovakia (hosts), Scotland (hosts), North Macedonia

Comparing to Euro 2024, Russia have failed to qualify this time around, after since being banned from UEFA competition for their part in their ongoing war with Ukraine. Sweden and North Macedonia have also failed to qualify, while Ukraine, Wales, Poland and Finland can only qualify via the Play-offs.

Albania, Romania, Slovenia and Serbia have qualified for Euro 2024, having failed to qualify for Euro 2020.

What were the FIFA rankings for the Euro 2020 teams?

These were the FIFA rankings (in brackets) of the qualified Euro 2020 teams when the draw was made on 30th November 2019:

  • Pot 1 – Belgium (1), Italy (13), England (4), Germany (15), Spain (8), Ukraine (24)
  • Pot 2 – France (2), Poland (19), Switzerland (12), Croatia (6), Netherlands (14), Russia (38)
  • Pot 3 – Portugal (7), Turkey (29), Denmark (16), Austria (26), Sweden (17), Czech Republic (45)
  • Pot 4 – Wales (22), Finland (58), Hungary (52), Slovakia (32), Scotland (50), North Macedonia (68)

Of the teams that have also qualified for Euro 2024, the likes of Hungary and Scotland have seen a significant rise in rank, while the likes of Belgium and Slovakia have seen dramatic falls.

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Adam Clancy

Adam is a lead writer on Football Whispers. He is a big Arsenal fan, and also follows his local club Wealdstone, made famous by The Wealdstone Raider, of whom he has interviewed. Adam also follows darts, boxing, cricket and tennis, among many other sports.